Deadlock between Kennedy Stewart and Ken Sim in election eve survey

Forward Together incumbent mayor Kennedy Stewart (left) and ABC Vancouver mayoral candidate Ken Sim (right). (Forward Together/ABC Vancouver)

Today is the day. It is general municipal election day in Vancouver, and in other cities and towns across British Columbia.

For the race in Vancouver, the results will begin pouring in shortly after 8 pm tonight, when polls close. Based on a brand new independently conducted survey conducted by Research Co. on the eve of the election, potentially providing a more accurate preview of the outcome, it will be an extremely close race between Forward Together mayoral candidate Kennedy Stewart and ABC mayoral candidate Ken Sim.

Amongst decided voters, Stewart and Sim now have support levels of 33% each, as of the survey dates of October 13 and 14. This is a 2% drop for Stewart and a 3% increase for Sim compared to Research Co.’s previous independent survey conducted September 3 to 5.

Colleen Hardwick of TEAM For A Livable Vancouver is at 16% (-1%), Mark Marissen of Progress Vancouver is at 8% (-5%), and Fred Harding of the Non-Partisan Association (NPA) is at 8% (+4%).

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The latest survey found 14% of likely voters are still undecided, with renters, likely voters aged 35 to 54, Vancouver Westside residents, and women most likely to be undecided. The margin of error is +/- 4.9% for the entire sample and +/-5.3% for the sample of decided voters, 19 times out of 20.

Research Co. also conducted a separate survey in late September, commissioned by the Vancouver and District Labour Council, which has endorsed Stewart and a number of other left-leaning candidates. In that survey, Stewart led with 36%, followed by Sim at 34%, Hardwick at 14%, Marissen at 8%, and Harding at 5%.

A separate survey by Forum Research, commissioned by Hardwick’s TEAM, on October 4 put Sim at 34.3%, Stewart at 24.4%, Hardwick at 21.2%, Marissen at 8.1%, and Harding at 7.7% amongst decided voters. At the time, it found 41% of voters were still undecided. This survey had a margin of error of +/- 4.9%, 19 times out of 20.

A separate survey by Leger conducted between September 29 and October 5, commissioned by Postmedia, found Sim at 31% amongst likely voters, followed by Stewart and Hardwick each at 13%. All three leading candidates were noted to be well ahead of Harding and Marissen. Leger’s survey had a margin of error of +/-3.1%, 19 times out of 20.

Stewart narrowly won his mayoral bid in 2018 as an independent, just 957 votes ahead of Sim, who was representing the NPA at the time.

Voting locations across Vancouver will be open between 8 am and 8 pm today, October 15.

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