Kennedy Stewart and Ken Sim are leading Vancouver's mayoral race: survey

Forward Together incumbent mayor Kennedy Stewart (left) and ABC Vancouver mayoral candidate Ken Sim (right). (Forward Together/ABC Vancouver)

With just about six weeks to go before the 2022 Vancouver election, Forward Together incumbent mayor Kennedy Stewart and ABC Vancouver mayoral candidate Ken Sim appear to be neck-and-neck in the race.

The results of a new Research Co. survey, conducted over the first weekend of September, show Stewart leading at 35% amongst decided voters, with Sim trailing slightly behind at 30%. This is followed by Colleen Hardwick of TEAM For A Livable Vancouver at 17%, Mark Marissen of Progress Vancouver at 13%, and Fred Harding of the Non-Partisan Association (NPA) at 4%.

There were similar proportions of support amongst likely voters, too. Stewart led by 29%, followed by Sim at 25%, Hardwick at 14%, Marissen at 11%, and Harding at 3%.

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Amongst decided voters, the age group of 35 to 54 is more likely to vote for Stewart (46%) than Sim (31%), but both candidates are tied (25%) for the younger age group of 18 to 34. For the older age group of 55 and over, Sim and Stewart also essentially tied as well at 41% and 39%, respectively.

As for area-based support, decided voters in the Vancouver Eastside (40%) and downtown Vancouver (37%) are more likely to support Stewart. Vancouver Westside decided voters are more likely to support Sim (36%) than Stewart (29%). Sim also has the support of 24% of decided voters in the Eastside and 26% in downtown,

For the mayoral seat, this is shaping up to be a repeat of the showdown four years ago. In the 2018 civic election, Stewart won with 49,705 votes — ahead by Sim by a thin margin of 957 votes.

Here are the top civic election issues for the survey respondents:

Housing: 35%
Drug overdoses: 14%
(three-way tie) Crime/Poverty/Property taxes: 9% each
Climate change: 7%
Jobs: 6%
COVID-19: 5%
Traffic congestion: 2%
Public transit: 2%

The survey also found that two third (67%) of likely voters in the City of Vancouver have followed the 2022 civic election campaign “very closely”or “moderately closely.” Research Co.’s survey had a margin of error of +/- 4.9% 19 times out of 20.

It remains to be seen how engaged voters will be; the turnout for the 2018 civic election was 39% — down from 43% in 2014.

The 2022 civic election is scheduled for Saturday, October 15.

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