ABC's Ken Sim now leading in Vancouver mayoral race: surveys

ABC's Ken Sim now leading in Vancouver mayoral race amongst decided voters: surveys

Ken Sim (ABC Vancouver)

ABC Vancouver mayoral candidate Ken Sim appears to be taking a new lead amongst decided voters in the final days of the civic election campaign.

A newly performed survey by Forum Research shows Sim ahead with 34.3% of the decided voters, with Forward Together incumbent Mayor Kennedy Stewart falling behind at 24.4%, and TEAM for a Livable Vancouver city councillor and mayoral candidate Colleen Hardwick at 21.2%.

Amongst decided voters, Mark Marissen of Progress Vancouver trails behind at 8.1%, and Fred Harding of the Non-Partisan Association (NPA) is at 7.7%.

It should be strongly emphasized that these support levels are based on decided voters. Forum Research’s survey, conducted on October 4, shows that 41% of voters are still undecided. The survey has a margin of error of +/-4.9%, 19 times out of 20.

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Rival party TEAM commissioned this latest survey that suggests Sim is now leading. TEAM’s previous survey through Forum Research, conducted in late July, showed support levels amongst decided voters of 18.7% for Sim, 15.6% for Stewart, 15.1% for Hardwick, and 3.4% for Marissen. Harding did not put his foot into the race until the following month. This previous survey indicated that 34% of voters were undecided.

Forum Research had the most accurate surveys in the June 2022 Ontario provincial election, predicting the re-election of Premier Doug Ford.

TEAM’s latest Forum Research survey also mirrors a separate new survey by Leger commissioned by Postmedia, which found Sim at 31% amongst likely voters, followed by Stewart and Hardwick each at 13%. All three candidates were well ahead of Harding and Marissen. Leger’s survey was conducted between September 29 and October 5, and had a margin of error of +/-3.1%, 19 times out of 20.

Another recent survey also conducted in late September by Research Co. and commissioned by the Vancouver and District Labour Council (VDLC), which has endorsed Stewart and other left-leaning candidates, found Stewart leading slightly at 36%, followed by Sim at 34%, Hardwick at 14%, Marissen at 8%, and Harding at 5%. This survey had a margin of error of +/-4.9%, 19 times out of 20.

In the 2018 civic election, Stewart narrowly won his mayoral bid, just 957 votes ahead of Sim, who was representing the NPA at the time.

The civic election will take place on October 15, 2022.

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