The Alberta forecast is sizzling but a weather change is lurking
The start of November has been gorgeous for much of Alberta, but unfortunately, that nice weather is soon to break down.
The forecast for areas across the province, including Edmonton and Calgary, is calling for temperatures to be well above average this week and even into next week.
Albertans better get out and enjoy the warmth while it sticks around, because it won’t be lasting forever.
What’s behind the warm weather in Alberta right now?
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Daily Hive spoke to Matt Albers, senior meteorologist with Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC), about what’s causing temperatures to swell and the snow we saw fall across Alberta late last month to disappear quickly.
Albers says the main cause of the current weather is an upper ridge. A lot of Alberta’s weather patterns are controlled by the jet stream, and the jet stream is that current of air that’s way high up at the top of the atmosphere, and that drives a lot of our weather systems.
“When that jet stream pushes far north upwards to, let’s say, for this example, towards the Alberta-Northwest Territories border, that causes a lot of our weather systems to be pushed up into the Arctic, and it also allows for some really warm temperatures from the United States to kind of push into our area, and that’s what’s causing our unseasonably warm temperatures right now,” he said.
With the forecast hinting that dazzling daytime highs are going to stick around for a decent amount of time, that pattern has to sit in one spot — and that’s called a blocking pattern.
A blocking pattern is where you end up with a really strong low-pressure system right now off the coast of the Pacific, and it’s kind of wedged between another low-pressure system that’s way off into eastern Canada. That creates a big ridging pattern over top of Alberta, and it’s very hard to move out of the way, so we end up with this ridge of high pressure that’s kind of just sitting over top of the province.
“It is probably a little bit uncommon to have temperatures as warm as we’re having, but definitely not a rare occurrence. As long as the jet stream is to our north, we’re going to have sunny and warm conditions,” he added.
Warm temperatures are expected to last as we get into next weekend before the pattern shifts a bit, allowing for temperatures to return back to near normal. That’s an average daytime high of 2°C for Edmonton and an average daytime high of 5°C for Calgary, as of writing.
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When that shift hits, the jet stream will be pushed down further south, likely over central Alberta, bringing with it cloud cover and a higher chance of precipitation due to low-pressure systems now having a chance to move through the area.
Are the warm temperatures in Alberta an early sign of El Niño impacts?
With chatter of an extremely strong El Niño in the cards for this winter, some people may be wondering if this heat we are seeing in early November is a sign of what is to come.
The specific pattern right now is one that Alberta would normally see once or twice a season, according to Albers, who would like to see the occurrence of it and how often it is happening when it comes to El Niño.
“If this is a direct result of El Niño, this pattern will more likely repeat itself, and then we will have another chance of above-normal temperatures like this again. So, this could very well be that first wave of our experience of El Niño. Time will tell as the season progresses, and the full impacts of El Niño for Alberta are still expected to basically occur from now into January and February.”
Albers added that, statistically speaking, when you go through El Niño events of the past, they do tend to push the jet stream further north, causing warmer temperatures and less precipitation for Alberta, but you can never discount shots of classic winter weather from making an appearance.
“The jet stream is not going to stay north of us; it meanders. It’s not going to stay warm the whole time. We’re going to have these blips where we have a plus 10 today, but maybe tomorrow it could be zero with snow, so you don’t want to be caught off guard and ill-prepared.”
If you’re curious about the very long-range forecast, here’s what the next three months of weather deep into winter might look like in Alberta.