When could Vancouver see its first snowfall of the season?

It’s still fall for a couple more months, but that hasn’t stopped us from thinking ahead to winter and the possibility of a “Snowmageddon.”

We reached out to the experts at Environment and Climate Change Canada to fill us in on when we could see flakes flying and when the earliest recorded snowfall was in Vancouver’s history for a kind of barometer of when you need to get the shovels out.

The earliest time we saw snow might surprise you. It was on October 28, 1991, when about 2 cm fell at the Vancouver International Airport.

Environment and Climate Change Canada meteorologist Bobby Sekhon said this year, we will not likely see snow in October.

One, because it’s not typical of this region where areas like Vancouver typically see rain while North Vancouver and the local mountains might see flakes in the fall.

“We don’t typically see snow around here until Remembrance Day or afterward.”

Snow in North Vancouver in early November 2022. (Georgia Mewis)

The second reason is that it’s an El Niño year.

El Niño typically means milder weather and less chance of heavy snowfalls.

But that said, it is just one factor, and other factors could have the exact opposite effect.

But while it might not snow, you will still need to have your windshield scrapers handy because frost is likely coming in the next month.

LeonWang/Shutterstock

The average first day of frost is November 10, according to Sekhon.

“So, that’s when there’s about 66% probability of hitting zero degrees by that day,” Sekhon said.

But, at least for the short term, you won’t need to worry about getting a toque out of storage quite yet, but it’s never too early to get prepared.

“No major cold outbreaks [are forecast] for the next couple of weeks.”

The Weather Network agrees in its recent October forecast that it will remain in the double digits for a bit longer.

In fact, the weather is forecast to be so pleasant that The Weather Network is calling it “abnormally warm… for mid-October.”

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With files from Megan Devlin