5 comparables for an Elias Pettersson extension with the Canucks

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With every perfectly placed wrist shot Elias Pettersson fires into the back of the net, Vancouver Canucks management must feel a twinge of a bittersweet sensation.

The 25-year-old is off to the best start of his career with 28 points through his first 19 games. While it’s great for the Canucks to witness the Swedish centreman flourish into a bonafide superstar, with every point he scores, his upcoming extension gets more expensive.

Pettersson is currently in the final year of a bridge deal signed right before the start of the 2021-22 NHL season. That contract spanned three years and carried an average annual value (AAV) of $7.35 million.

Pettersson will still be a restricted free agent this summer so the Canucks do have a little bit of extra bargaining power in extension talks. However, he could quickly flip the power dynamic by refusing to commit to a long-term deal, just as Matthew Tkachuk did in Calgary not too long ago.

It has been reported that the two sides are in discussion about a potential extension and that negotiations are ongoing.

Here are five contracts that could be used by the two sides as comparables during Pettersson’s upcoming contract negotiations, sorted from highest to lowest AAV.

1. Auston Matthews

• Contract length: Four years
  
• Contract value: $13.25 million AAV
  
• Percentage of cap: 15.87%
  
• Stats in year signed: 74 GP, 40 G, 45 A, 85 PTS

Auston Matthews signed a contract extension with the Toronto Maple Leafs just a few months ago in August. It should make him the highest-paid player by AAV across the entire NHL when it kicks in next year.

Prior to signing this contract, Matthews recorded four straight seasons with at least 40 goals, including one where he hit 60. That is a stronger track record of success than Pettersson can point to at this point.

The previous contract that Matthews was playing on would have left him as an unrestricted free agent upon expiry. Pettersson’s RFA status means that he’s unable to hit the open market, again likely resulting in a lower number.

However, Matthews signed this contract for only four years. If the Canucks want to sign Pettersson to an eight-year contract, this AAV could represent the higher end of the possibilities as they lock up prime years.

2. Connor McDavid

• Contract length: Eight years
• Contract value: $12.5 million AAV
• Percentage of cap: 16.67%
• Stats in year signed: 82 GP, 30 G, 70 A, 100 PTS

Connor McDavid signed this contract directly after his entry-level deal, meaning it was a bit of a different situation than Pettersson.

This deal was also signed in the summer of 2017, so it’s slightly dated at this point. At the time, this AAV was equal to 16.67% of the total salary cap. If the salary cap jumps to $87.5 million next season, a reasonable prediction, that same percentage would equate to an AAV of $14.59 million per season.

McDavid was widely considered to be on the road to being the best player in the league when he signed this contract. Pettersson is not on that level, though if he continues his current scoring pace, he will not be far off.

This contract offers a strong example of a better player than Pettersson who signed a long-term contract. The era-adjusted AAV ($14.59 million) for this contract is likely more than the highest that Pettersson could command.

3. Mitch Marner

• Contract length: Six years
• Contract value: $10.93 million AAV
• Percentage of cap: 13.38%
• Stats in year signed: 82 GP, 26 G, 68 A, 94 PTS

Mitch Marner is another member of the Maple Leafs who could make sense as a comparable. Like McDavid, he signed this large extension right after his entry-level contract, meaning again that it’s a slightly different situation than the one the Canucks are dealing with.

Marner is also a winger, while Pettersson is a centre. In the NHL, positional value does equate to larger contracts and thus, we can expect the Swedish forward to get a bigger deal.

Marner only scored 26 goals and had 68 assists for 94 points in his contract year before signing this contract. Pettersson broke the 100-point mark and had 39 goals last season, although he is older and on his second contract. He’s also on pace to easily clear 100 points again.

When Marner signed this deal, it was worth 13.38% of the total salary cap. That would equate to $11.7 million if the cap does rise to $87.5 million next year. This seems close to what might be plausible for a longer-term deal, although Pettersson’s camp could argue that as he is a centre and has put up better stats than Marner had at this point, he deserves more.

4. Brayden Point

• Contract length: Eight years
• Contract value: $9.5 million AAV
• Percentage of cap: 11.66%
• Stats in year signed: 56 GP, 23 G, 25 A, 48 PTS

Brayden Point signed a bridge deal just as Pettersson did so he is the best comparable on this list in that sense. He signed this large extension with the Tampa Bay Lightning in the summer of 2021.

When comparing Point and Pettersson’s regular season stats, there is a clear winner. When he signed this deal, Point’s best year included 41 goals and 51 assists for 92 points in 79 games. Pettersson did better last year with 100+ points and is on pace to destroy that mark this year.

However, Point was a crucial player in the Lightning’s back-to-back Stanley Cup victories. He had 28 goals and 56 points in 46 games across the two playoff runs prior to signing this deal. Those performances are a large reason he got paid and his playoff pedigree cannot be ignored.

When Point signed this deal, it was worth 11.66% of the salary cap. With an $87.5 million cap, that is $10.2 million per season.

It must also be considered that the Lightning play half of their games in Florida where there is no state income tax. This does help the team get a bit of a discount when signing contracts.

This seems like a contract that the team might put forward but one that is likely too low for a player of Pettersson’s caliber. If he signs long-term on anything close to this number, it would be a victory for the Canucks.

5. Matthew Tkachuk

• Contract length: Eight years
• Contract value: $9.5 million AAV
• Percentage of cap: 11.52%
• Stats in year signed: 82 GP, 42 G, 62 A, 104 PTS

Last but not least, Matthew Tkachuk is a player who used his leverage to force his way out of a situation similar to the one that Pettersson is in right now as an RFA. Tkachuk signed this massive contract before being traded to the Florida Panthers.

The first difference to note between these two players is the position. As with Marner, Pettersson’s value as a centre means that he should get a larger contract than Tkachuk.

The American-born winger is also playing in Florida and getting the same tax benefits as Point. That is another point that suggests Pettersson’s price will be even higher.

Tkachuk did score 42 goals and 102 points before signing this deal. He is also a physical force and does things that do not show up in the box score. Still, Pettersson’s positional value and wicked scoring pace this season mean that this AAV should only act as a floor.

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