How concerned should Canucks be about Kuzmenko's woeful goal pace?
While many Vancouver Canucks have started the season red-hot, there’s one notable forward who has been struggling. Through 20 games, winger Andrei Kuzmenko is on pace to finish with just 12 goals, a sharp decrease from the 39 he managed last year.
He’s going to sit out tonight’s game against the Seattle Kraken as a healthy scratch due to his recent play.
“I think he needs to get his game a little sharper,” said head coach Rick Tocchet when discussing the decision. “When you’re not scoring, you’ve gotta make sure of your details in your own end. He’s thinking too much. There are some systems stuff that we need to be able to count on in these positions.”
Last winter, the Canucks extended the Russian winger with a two-year contract that carries a cap hit of $5.5 million. While repeating his near-40-goal season was always going to be a difficult task, the organization definitely expects more than a 12-goal pace at that price point.
He has not scored in nine consecutive games. Prior to this year, Kuzmenko was a popular regression candidate due to last season when he led the league by scoring 27.3% of his shots. That number has cratered to a much more typical 10.7% this season, and his goals have dropped off as a result.
However, it’s not just that he’s scoring on fewer of his shots. His underlying numbers also suggest that he’s struggling to create the same number of scoring chances. His individual scoring chances per 60 minutes at five-on-five have decreased by almost 40% year over year, according to NaturalStatTrick.
The Canucks’ line of Kuzmenko, Elias Pettersson, and Ilya Mikheyev has stumbled out of the gate. The trio is being outscored at five-on-five despite generally avoiding the toughest matchups. While part of that may be due to a potential nagging injury the Swedish centreman could be fighting through, Kuzmenko’s play has also been a factor.
While all of this may be cause for concern, there are still signs that despite not having the individual stats to back it up, Kuzmenko is having a positive impact on the game. The Canucks have outshot opponents 114-97 with the 5-foot-11 winger on the ice, the second-best ratio of any player on the team.
In addition, Kuzmenko scored 14 goals on the power play last season. While he hasn’t been able to repeat that level of production, the Canucks have a top-five unit across the NHL. The decrease in individual power play goals is less concerning due to the team’s success.
As Tocchet alluded to, there are still lots of details that the forward needs to clean up. He’s never been known for his defensive play, and thus when he’s not scoring, his effectiveness can suffer.
However, the overall control of the shot share and the fact that the main driver on his line is also struggling means that Kuzmenko’s play may not be as poor as the stats suggest. While a game in the press box could be good motivation, the Canucks can’t afford to be missing one of their best forwards for long.