BC NDP regains lead ahead of BC Conservatives: survey

David Eby (BC NDP)

David Eby’s BC NDP has seen an uptick in support in recent days, enough to take a lead over the Conservative Party of BC, according to the most recent public opinion survey.

Leger’s survey conducted over the days immediately before the televised debate on October 8, 2024 shows the BC NDP have 47% support among decided votes, followed by John Rustad’s BC Conservatives at 42% and Sonia Furstenau’s BC Green Party at 9%.

Compared to the previous survey by Leger completed on September 30, 2024, the BC NDP gained 4%, while the BC Conservatives lost 4% and the BC Greens lost 1%.

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In several prior Leger surveys conducted in September 2024, shortly after the BC United (BC Liberals) party threw in the towel, the BC Conservatives briefly took a 2% to 3% lead over the BC NDP.

According to Leger, in the most recent survey, the BC Conservatives saw sizeable drops of support among young adults between the ages of 18 and 34 and among women.

When it comes to tackling the key issues facing BC, the BC NDP lead in housing affordability and supply (39% vs. BC Conservatives at 23% and BC Greens at 9%) and healthcare (40% vs. BC Conservatives at 26% and BC Greens at 3%), while the BC Conservatives lead in the economy (56% vs. BC NDP at 22% and BC Greens at 3%). Both the BC NDP and BC Conservatives are tied on the issue of inflation (31%).

Conservative Party of BC leader John Rustad, BC NDP leader David Eby, and BC Green Party leader Sonia Furstenau. (BC Conservatives | BC NDP | BC Greens)

With less than two weeks to go until the provincial general election on Saturday, October 19, 2024, 87% of BC residents indicate they are likely to vote, with 65% indicating they will “definitely vote.” As well, 80% of decided voters indicate that they are unlikely to switch their vote, with only 14% noting they are likely to change their vote. Supporters of the BC Conservatives are least likely to change their vote, compared to BC NDP supporters.

Leger’s statistically representative survey involved over 1,000 adult respondents, and it had a margin of error of +/-3.1%, 19 times out of 20. This survey was conducted between October 3 and 7, 2024.

While Leger’s new survey shows the BC NDP leading, a separate survey by Research Co. conducted between September 30 and October 2, 2024 suggests the BC NDP and BC Conservatives are practically tied at 45% and 44%, respectively.

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