BC NDP and BC Conservatives locked in tie ahead of election: survey

BC NDP's David Eby (left) and BC Conservatives' John Rustad (right). (BC NDP | Conservative Party of BC)

A survey completed just over two weeks before British Columbians head to the polls suggests David Eby’s BC NDP and John Rustad’s Conservative Party of BC are in a dead heat.

According to Research Co.’s brand new survey, 45% of decided voters would vote for the BC NDP, representing a 1% increase from a similar survey in early September 2024, while 44% of decided voters would vote for the BC Conservatives, representing a 2% increase.

Meanwhile, the BC Greens have the support of 9% of decided voters, which is a decrease of 1%, and only 2% of decided voters would vote for other parties or independent candidates, which is also a 1% drop.

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Within Metro Vancouver, the BC NDP is leading by 49%, compared to the BC Conservatives at 44%. While the BC NDP is also leading on Vancouver Island, they are trailing behind the BC Conservatives in the Fraser Valley, Southern BC, and Northern BC.

The survey suggests BC residents have greater confidence in Eby’s ability to handle healthcare, the economy, education, housing, homelessness, poverty, transportation projects, accountability, childcare, and seniors care. Both Eby and Rustad are essentially tied when it comes to creating jobs, energy, dealing with municipal governments, and handling the provincial government’s finances.

However, Rustad is seen as the best leader to handle crime and public safety issues.

Survey respondents indicated housing, homelessness, and poverty are the most important issues facing the province (40%), followed by healthcare (19%), the economy and jobs (18%), crime and public safety (8%), and the environment (4%).

Over the past week, the BC NDP and BC Conservatives have released sweeping platform promises, including those related to housing, transportation infrastructure, and energy.

This survey was conducted between September 30 and October 2, 2024, and had a representative sample of 801 likely voters as its respondents. The margin of error is deemed to be +/- 3.5% 19 times out of 20.

The BC Conservatives have narrowed the gap in consecutive surveys over the BC NDP and the BC United, which dropped out of the race in late August 2024.

The provincial general election is scheduled for Saturday, October 19, 2024.

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