BC Conservatives leading in new survey one week before election
The latest public opinion survey suggests the Conservative Party of BC is leading ahead of the BC NDP, just one week before the provincial general election day.
Mainstreet Research released the findings of their latest survey conducted this week from Tuesday, October 8 — the date of the campaigning period’s only televised debate — to Thursday, October 10.
Among decided voters, John Rustad’s BC Conservatives lead with 45% of support, followed by 39% for David Eby’s BC NDP, 12% for Sonia Furstenau’s BC Greens, and 4% for others.
Among all voters, the BC Conservatives also lead with 42%, followed by the BC NDP at 36%, BC Greens at 11%, and others at 3%, with those undecided at 7%.
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This survey shows the BC Conservatives lead the BC NDP in Metro Vancouver ridings (44.9% Conservatives vs. 41.8% NDP) and ridings of the province outside of the South Coast (51.1% Conservatives vs. 35% NDP). The BC NDP lead on Vancouver Island (39.8% NDP vs. 35.8% Conservatives).
Residents of Vancouver Island are much more likely to vote for the BC Greens, where the party enjoys 19.5% of support — contrasted with 9.9% within Metro Vancouver and 9% elsewhere in BC.
As well, all age groups between 18 and 64 years old are more likely to vote for the BC Conservatives, including those ages 18 to 34 (49.6% Conservatives vs. 33.1% NDP). When it comes to race, East Asian, Latino, and Middle Eastern residents are exponentially more likely to vote for the BC Conservatives than the BC NDP.
One breakdown by an election modeller using Mainstreet Research’s survey data suggests that the BC Conservatives could win a majority government with 55 seats, while the BC NDP and BC Greens would secure 37 seats and one seat, respectively.
Latest BC Mainstreet poll modelled out
🔵CON: 55 seats (+55)
đźź NDP: 37 seats (-20)
🟢GRN: 1 seat (-1)Conservative Majority Government
Feel free to ask for any ridings https://t.co/bhWde8tBIN pic.twitter.com/NZ3L3AcsfT
— Charestiste🇨🇦 (@RealAlbanianPat) October 11, 2024
Mainstreet Research’s statistically representative survey had a sample of 918 adults, with a margin of error of +/-3.2%, 19 times out of 20.
However, two other separate surveys conducted by other companies, completed earlier this week before the televised debate, show the BC NDP in the lead.
Leger’s survey, conducted from October 3 to 7, 2024, shows that the BC NDP has 47% support among decided votes, followed by the BC Conservatives at 42% and the BC Greens at 9%.
A survey by Fairview Strategy conducted from October 4 to 6 2024 pegs the BC NDP at 37%, BC Conservatives at 32%, and BC Greens at 8%.
The provincial general election is scheduled for October 19, 2024. Advanced voting opportunities have now begun.
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- BC Conservatives to consider new monthly pass for BC Ferries' frequent users
- BC Conservatives vow major new transportation infrastructure, including SkyTrain extension to Newton
- BC NDP promise to build UBC SkyTrain, rail service to Fraser Valley and Whistler
- The winner of the BC leaders' debate according to residents
- Opinion: Three core priorities to improve public safety in BC communities
- Opinion: Wrong election outcome may undo BC’s housing affordability plans