Why analytics experts are high on new Canucks signing Pius Suter
There are many reasons why it made sense for the Vancouver Canucks to sign Pius Suter.
But signing him in the dog days of summer at a bargain cap hit? That’s just something Canucks fans aren’t used to.
Suter, who just signed a two-year deal worth $1.6 million per season, was valued as a $3 million player according to The Athletic’s Player Card model.
Clearly though, there’s a difference between what NHL teams thought of Suter, and what the analytics community thinks of him.
If the gap was smaller, he wouldn’t have signed his next NHL contract on August 11, with most of the hockey world in offseason mode.
So, why is he so beloved by the analytics community? Let’s get into it here.
Suter’s role at even-strength has evolved
The role that Suter has played at even strength has changed drastically since first entering the NHL three years ago.
During Suter’s first NHL season with the Chicago Blackhawks, he was given an opportunity to centre the Blackhawks’ top line with Patrick Kane and Alex DeBrincat.
That trio was trusted with giving the Blackhawks some offence, and they delivered. In 50 games together, the line of Kane, Suter, and DeBrincat outscored the opposition 20 to 13 at even strength. Without that line together on the ice, the Blackhawks had a -32 goal differential at five-on-five.
Suter surprisingly went unqualified as a restricted free agent after finishing 11th in Calder voting during his rookie season. He then signed a two-year deal worth $3.25 million per season with the Detroit Red Wings.
While playing for another bottom-feeding team in 2021-22, Suter averaged 16:55 per game, which was fifth among all Red Wings forwards. He scored at a second-line rate while finishing the season with the fifth-best expected goals against differential among Red Wings regulars.
Then last season, Suter ended up being more of a third-line defensive centre. While his ice time decreased, his defensive impact improved.
The Vancouver Canucks have signed Pius Suter to a two-year deal with an AAV of $1.6M. That's very good deal for Vancouver in our eyes. Suter, if he'll play there, could be great 3C. If not, he's solid middle-six winger. pic.twitter.com/X7j5n6KYWu
— Andy & Rono (@ARHockeyStats) August 12, 2023
Suter’s even-strength scoring dried up a bit, but the Red Wings were a low event team with him on the ice, allowing 2.45 expected goals per 60.
That total was eighth-best on the team, although most of the players ahead of him were either used sporadically or faced easier matchups.
With Suter on the ice, you can see from the graph below that the Wings didn’t allow many quality chances at even strength (or on the penalty kill, for that matter).
HockeyViz.com
Suter’s penalty-killing prowess
The Canucks have targeted players with penalty killing experience this offseason, and Suter is no different.
Suter didn’t play much while shorthanded as a rookie in Chicago, but he’s spent more than 275 minutes on the penalty kill for the Red Wings during the last two seasons.
Last season, Suter was statistically one of the best penalty killers in the NHL.
Relative to his teammates in 2022-23, the Red Wings allowed 15 fewer shot attempts per 60 minutes shorthanded with Suter on the ice. Among 119 regular penalty killing forwards last season, that total ranked 10th best.
Suter’s 6.28 expected shorthanded goals against per 60 was also best among any Wings penalty killing forward.
The main caveat here is that Suter wasn’t the Wings’ most used penalty killing forward, meaning he avoided some tougher matchups. Still, he did form the Wings’ top penalty killing duo with Andrew Copp for a chunk of last season, although Copp took the majority of the faceoffs.
That’s one glaring weakness in Suter’s shorthanded game. He had a ghastly 37.2% faceoff win percentage while shorthanded for the Wings last season.
Faceoff struggles aside, the Wings were successful with Suter on the ice killing penalties. Detroit scored three goals while allowing 13 when Suter was on the ice at four-on-five. Without him on the ice, the Wings scored twice and allowed 37 shorthanded goals against.
How to get the most out of Suter
While not a perfect or flashy player, Suter brings a lot to the table in terms of his reliability and ability to provide secondary offence.
It’s also evident that his lack of size (5-foot-11, 179 pounds) is likely a main reason why NHL teams didn’t value him as highly as analytical models.
One reason why the Canucks are theoretically a better fit for Suter than the Red Wings is because of their better depth at forward. Heading into the 2023-24 season, Suter could have linemates such as Anthony Beauvillier, Ilya Mikheyev, Teddy Blueger, or even Conor Garland.
Last season with the Red Wings, Suter’s most common linemates were Oscar Sundqvist, Lucas Raymond, Adam Erne, Dominik Kubalik, and Joe Veleno.
On the penalty kill, the Canucks could put Suter with a centre like Blueger or J.T. Miller so that they can shelter him taking too many shorthanded faceoffs.
At this point, Suter seems like a good bet to provide more value than his $1.6 million annual salary. That will certainly be the case if all the analytical models are right about his true value.
Follow Channels and Categories