Canada plans to order up to 12 new arctic-capable submarines

Royal Canadian Navy's HMCS Corner Brook submarine. (Blake Rodgers/Royal Canadian Navy)

The size of the Royal Canadian Navy’s submarine fleet could triple in size in response to growing global threats to Canadian sovereignty, especially emerging threats in Canada’s vast arctic lands.

The Government of Canada announced on Wednesday that it will acquire up to 12 new additional submarines, with the early stages of the procurement process scheduled to begin in Fall 2024. No estimated cost and timeline for implementation has been established at this stage.

These will be conventionally powered, non-nuclear submarines capable of traversing under sea ice to increase Canada’s ability to patrol and defend its Arctic.

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Canada has the world’s largest coastline, but it currently has just four submarines — all built in the early 1990s and acquired from the British Royal Navy — based at the navy bases of Victoria and Halifax. These aging Victoria-class submarines are increasingly becoming obsolete and expensive to maintain, according to the federal government.

“This new fleet will enable Canada to protect its sovereignty in a changing world, and make valuable, high-end contributions to the security of our partners and NATO Allies. We look forward to delivering this new fleet to the Royal Canadian Navy,” said Bill Blair, the federal minister of national defence, in a statement.

This also comes as Canada faces growing pressure from the United States and other NATO members that the country is falling well behind on the membership commitment to commit at least 2% of national GDP towards defence spending. As of this year, Canada will spend about 1.4% of its GDP on defence, and it is expected to progressively increase to 1.76% by 2030 based on the goal of reaching at least 2% by 2032. Much of Canada’s defence strategy currently relies on its US neighbour.

According to the federal government, there is now more Russian activity in the Atlantic, Arctic, and Pacific oceans, including Russian submarine activity, and a growing number of Chinese dual-purpose research vessels and surveillance platforms collecting data about the Canadian North, which is subsequently made available to China’s military due to Chinese law. As well, China is in the process of rapidly expanding its submarine fleet.

Moreover, with the warming climate, it is estimated that the Northwest Passage through the Canadian Arctic will be open for at least a very significant portion of each year, peaking during the summer months.

The federal government estimates the Arctic Ocean through Canada’s Northwest Passage could become the most efficient shipping route between Europe and East Asia by 2050.

“Canada’s Northwest Passage and the broader Arctic region are already more accessible, and competitors are seeking access, transportation routes, natural resources, critical minerals, and energy sources through more frequent and regular presence and activity. They are exploring Arctic waters and the sea floor, probing our infrastructure and collecting intelligence,” reads the federal government’s rationale.

“Canada will acquire a larger, modernized submarine fleet to enable the Royal Canadian Navy to covertly detect and deter maritime threats, control our maritime approaches, project power and striking capability further from our shores, and project a persistent deterrent on all three coasts.”

Although the new submarine fleet will be conventionally powered and non-nuclear, the federal government states its procurement process will seek “stealth, lethality, persistence, and Arctic deployability — meaning that the submarine must have extended range and endurance.”

“Canada’s new fleet will need to provide a unique combination of these requirements to ensure that Canada can detect, track, deter and, if necessary, defeat adversaries in all three of Canada’s oceans while contributing meaningfully alongside allies and enabling the Government of Canada to deploy this fleet abroad in support of our partners and allies.”

Just before acquiring the existing Victoria-class submarines, Prime Minister Brian Mulroney in the late 1980s cancelled an advanced plan to buy 12 nuclear-powered submarines for about $8 billion (about $17 billion in 2024 dollars).

The existing four diesel-electric submarines in use each have a length of 70 metres (230 ft), a complement of up to 49 crew, and a range of up to 19,000 km. They can reach speeds of up to 12 knots (22 km/hr) surfaced and 20 knots (37 km/hr) underwater.

The forthcoming Canadian Patrol Submarine Project is in addition to the federal government’s much-delayed $100+ billion National Shipbuilding Strategy of building about two dozen new combatant warships for the Royal Canadian Navy and 30 non-combatant ships for the Canadian Coast Guard, including arctic icebreakers. The warships are being built in Halifax’s Irving shipyards, while the non-combatant ships are being built at Seaspan shipyards in North Vancouver and Davie shipyards near Quebec City.

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