Notley gaining ground on UCP according to recent polls

Apr 9 2019, 4:27 pm

Don’t call the race over before it’s been won, Alberta.

While Rachel Notley and the NDP have been trailing behind the UCP in the polls over the past month leading up to April 16’s provincial election (and, to be fair, still are), two of the most recent polls actually show the premier making some ground as advance voting stations open across the province.

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A poll published on April 9 by Ipsos/Global News pegs Notley and Kenney at an eight-point differential, with the UCP garnering 47% of decided and leaning voters’ support, and the NDP taking 39%.

The poll was administered online to 800 eligible Albertan voters and was conducted between April 5 and 9 — after the leaders debate on April 4.

A ThinkHQ survey was published on the same day as the Ipsos/Global News one, though the gap between the two biggest political parties in Alberta appeared even smaller according to their research.

The ThinkHQ poll showed just a six-point lead for the UCP over the NDP, garnering 46% and 40% of respondents’ favour, respectively.


The Alberta Party trailed in third in both polls, receiving 10% of the hypothetical vote from respondents in the Ipsos survey and 8% from ThinkHQ.

The ThinkHQ survey was conducted online to a sample of 1,139 Albertans, with the sample size weighted to reflected gender, age, and region.

To put all this into perspective, we need to take a look at the polls that were published in the past month.

When Albertans were asked which way they leaned by the Angus Reid Institute between March 11 and 18, it appeared that Kenney had a commanding lead over the NDP, with 56% in favour of the UCP and only 31% stating that they would vote for Rachel Notley and the New Democratic Party.


Angus Reid Institute

Just two weeks later, and a poll prepared by Janet Brown Opinion Research gauged a 19 point difference between the two main parties, with the UCP at 53% and the NDP at only 34%.

Around the same time, another poll was published by Research Co., which saw the NDP just five points back on their opposition.

It is important to keep in mind that Alberta has seen its share of election results varying widely from polling expectations, so it’ll all come down to April 16 to see exactly how the province casts its ballots.

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