Angus Reid poll estimates UCP well ahead of NDP in provincial race

Mar 22 2019, 4:55 pm

With just 25 days left until the 2019 Alberta provincial election, the Angus Reid Institute has released a poll showing how they found the votes to fall.

The Institute conducted an online survey between March 11 to 18 with a sample of 812 adult Albertans to see what issued they care the most about and who they would vote for if the election was to be held the following day.

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The answers showed a large lead for Jason Kenney and his United Conservative Party among the respondents, with 56% in favour of the UCP and only 31% stating that they would vote for Rachel Notley and the New Democratic Party.

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Angus Reid Institute

Of the sample size, the only demographic that appeared to lean more towards Notley was Albertan respondents aged 18 to 34.

The poll also showed that male respondents were much more likely to throw their hat in with Kenney, as well as those aged 35 and up.

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Angus Reid Institute

Unsurprisingly, the main concerns heading into this April’s election included the oil and gas industry, jobs, and the economy, while respondents considered education and the environment to be much lower on their list of concerns.

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Angus Reid Institute

When asked whether or not they were satisfied with the state of Alberta under its current government, 43% of those polled stated that they were very dissatisfied, while another 17% were somewhat dissatisfied.

In total, only 40% of respondents were satisfied while 60% were not.

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Angus Reid Institute

The approval rating of the leaders in particular somewhat echoed the percentages of would-be voters for each party, with 42% approving of Premier Notley and 56% approving of Kenney.

Only 1% stated that they were “not sure” when asked if they approved or disapproved of Notley and only a slight increase of 3% for those who were undecided when it came to Kenney — showing that, for at least the 812 Albertans polled, the line in the oil sand has been drawn and crossed on both sides.

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Angus Reid Institute

However, Alberta has seen its share of election results varying widely from polling expectations, so it’ll all come down to April 16 to see exactly how the province cast its ballots.