Analytics site gives Flames best chance at becoming 2023 Stanley Cup champs

The Calgary Flames have the best odds to hoist Lord Stanley’s Cup in 2023, according to one popular analytics website. 

MoneyPuck, one of the most-used public hockey resources for NHL analytics, playoff odds, live in-game win probabilities, and power rankings, has the Flames atop the league with an 8.3% chance of winning hockey’s Holy Grail. 

Calgary was ousted in five games in the Western Conference Second Round of the 2022 playoffs by the Edmonton Oilers.

The defending Stanley Cup champion Colorado Avalanche are second at 8.0%, and the Florida Panthers and Toronto Maple Leafs are tied for third at 7.3%. 

Moneypuck

Calgary’s chance to qualify for the playoffs is second-best at 88.5%, trailing Colorado at 91.1%. By comparison, Edmonton is 10th at 70.9%. 

Moneypuck also projects the Flames to have the highest probability of winning their division, naming Calgary a 42.8% favourite to capture the Pacific Division. Colorado has a 40.7% shot at taking the Central Division, Florida an 87.9% chance at the Atlantic Division — Toronto an 86.3% opportunity to snag the Atlantic — and the Carolina Hurricanes an 82.8% chance at snagging the Metropolitan Division.

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Odds were last updated on Wednesday night and are calculated by “running a simulation of the rest of the NHL season 100,000 times we can create precise probabilities of the outcome of the season for each team,” according to the website.

Calgary was also projected to win the 2022 Stanley Cup by Moneypuck last April.

The Flames won the Pacific Division last year with 111 points by way of a 50-21-11 record — the second-highest point total in franchise history after the 1988-89 edition of the club. 

The group has changed significantly year over year. 

Gone are Johnny Gaudreau and Matthew Tkachuk, Calgary’s top two leading scorers from a season ago. Gaudreau opted to sign with the Columbus Blue Jackets in July, and Tkachuk was the focal point of a blockbuster swap with the Panthers that returned winger Jonathan Huberdeau and MacKenzie Weegar, as well as prospect Cole Schwindt and a conditional first-round pick. 

The Flames also added Nazem Kadri in free agency. Kadri won the Cup in June with the Avalanche.