Analytics site gives Flames best odds to win the Stanley Cup

Sergei Belski/USA TODAY Sports

The Calgary Flames have the best odds of winning the Stanley Cup, according to one popular analytics website.

MoneyPuck, one of the most-used public hockey resources for NHL analytics, playoff odds, live in-game win probabilities, and power rankings, has the Flames atop the league with a 12.3% chance at winning hockey’s holy grail.

By comparison, the Florida Panthers are second at 10.2%, and the Toronto Maple Leafs sit third at 9.8%. The Edmonton Oilers, currently second in the Pacific Division, have the 12th-best odds with a 4.1% chance.

MoneyPuck.com

But don’t tell coach Darryl Sutter that Calgary is the pace-setter.

“Play your role, do your job. Do that, and you have a chance to win,” Sutter said a week ago.

“That’s the best way to do it. You’re going to be an underdog. Doesn’t matter. That’s a fact. As an organization, you’ve had zero success for a long time. You’re going to be an underdog whoever you play because…just the markets here and who you’re playing.”

MoneyPuck runs 100,000 season simulations to “create precise probabilities of the outcome of the season for each team,” the website says.

The Flames currently lead the Oilers by four points for tops in the Pacific Division, with two fewer games played. Calgary is tied for second in the Western Conference with the Minnesota Wild at 91 points.

The team has yet to clinch a berth in the Stanley Cup Playoffs. Only the Eastern Conference-leading Panthers and NHL-leading Colorado Avalanche have clinched to date.

The earliest Calgary could clinch is April 12.

MoneyPuck, however, places those odds at 99.99%, and a division title at 96.9%. They project the Flames to finish with a Pacific-leading 108.6 points — seventh-best in the NHL.

Bettors aren’t so enthusiastic about the odds, however.

The Flames have just the third-best line to win the Cup with a +850 mark, according to betting site bet365, meaning a $100 bet would return $950.

Colorado, at +375, and Florida, at +475, are the betting favourites as of April 6.

Calgary does, however, have the second-best odds, behind the Avalanche, to be crowned Western Conference champions at +350. They are also the overwhelming favourites to be crowned Division leaders at -5000.

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