Angus Reid poll shows UCP lead narrowing with less than one week left

Apr 12 2019, 9:13 pm

With less than a week to go until election day, hundreds of thousands of ballots have already been cast through advance voting.

Whether those votes are for the United Conservative Party, the New Democratic Party, or any of the other players on the ballots will only be discovered after polls close on April 16, but the Angus Reid Institute has attempted to get a clue of the victor ahead of time.

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In the most recent opinion poll leading up to the election, Angus Reid found that the UCP apparently still commands a significant lead over the NDP, though also discovered that their lead is shrinking in comparison to the Institute’s polling results from a month ago.

Shortly after Rachel Notley officially dropped the writ on March 16, the Angus Reid Institute released a poll showing the results of an online survey they conducted between March 11 to 18 with a sample of 812 Albertans.

That previous poll saw the UCP with a demanding 25-point lead, with 56% of respondents stating that they would vote UCP if the election was held the following day, while only 31% said the same of Notley’s NDP.

Fast-forward to April 12, and Angus Reid’s new data shows that the lead has nearly been cut in half, with the UCP up on the NDP by 13 points, 52% to 39%.

The majority of that change came by Notley gaining 8% in favour, while the UCP dropped by 4% compared to the March poll.

Other parties also saw a decrease in potential voters, as they dropped from 13% to 10% of respondents between the two polls.

The newer poll was conducted online between April 5 and 8 — the days directly following a televised leaders debate — to a sample size of 807 adult Albertans.

Whether or not the NDP’s apparent momentum will carry them to a repeat of 2015 remains to be seen, but given the number of UCP voters jumping ship for the NDP, as seen in the polls and on social media below, it’s clearly going to be a tight race.

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