Victoria might be known for its mild weather, but every once in a while, the city surprises residents with a true taste of winter. While snowfall in the capital is a rare occurrence, it’s definitely something to talk about when it happens.
In 1971, Victoria experienced its earliest-ever snowfall on October 29 — an unusual event for a city where snow shovels are a rare household item.
Fast forward 25 years, and the winter of 1996 set another record, with a staggering 128.7 centimetres of snow accumulating over the season.
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So, what’s in store this year?
While no one expects a repeat of the 1996 storm this year, forecasts suggest that winter 2024-25 could still bring a chill. Although predicting the exact timing of snowfall is challenging, meteorologists are already looking at what this winter may bring.
According to Matt Loney, meteorologist for Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC), it’s still early, but there’s a key factor that could affect snow in the region: La Niña.
“We’re still quite early in the season, but we typically don’t see snow at sea level until we get Arctic air, and we don’t really see evidence of that yet,” Loney told Daily Hive.
While his models can’t predict exactly when the first snowfall will happen, he does say that November is usually when Arctic air might begin to influence sea-level conditions.
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The real wildcard for this winter is La Niña — a natural climate pattern that typically leads to cooler northwest flow and higher chances of Arctic air and precipitation across the Pacific Northwest.
“This year, it’s a La Niña year, and there’s a 75% chance of La Niña appearing,” Loney explains. “It doesn’t guarantee snow, but it loads the dice,” says Loney.
So, while it’s impossible to pinpoint when Victoria will see its first snowflake, La Niña could mean that residents should prepare for a potentially colder winter ahead.
The winter weather forecast from the 2025 Old Farmers’ Almanac Canadian Edition is chilly for southern BC. Snowfall will also be lighter than expected, with the snowiest periods in late November, early December, early January, early to mid-February, and early March.
Will Victoria break any of its historical records this year? Only time will tell, but it’s always smart to have a pair of boots ready, just in case.