ABC Vancouver's Ken Sim takes slight lead in race to be mayor: survey

Ken Sim (ABC Vancouver)

The findings of a recent survey released today suggest a tight three-way race to be Vancouver’s mayor for the next four years, with Ken Sim of the ABC Vancouver party taking a slight lead.

Nearly one-in-five or 18.7% of respondents put Sim as their first choice as mayor, according to the survey by Forum Research, commissioned by the TEAM For A Livable Vancouver party.

Forward Together incumbent Kennedy Stewart and TEAM’s Colleen Hardwick are trailing behind slightly at 15.6% and 15.1%, respectively.

Just 3.4% would vote for Mark Marissen of Progress Vancouver, and a similar proportion of 5.6% would vote for unnamed candidates.

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The survey was conducted in late July, so it also gauged the level of support for the Non-Partisan Association’s (NPA) John Coupar, who resigned on August 5. Coupar came fourth in the survey with 7.5% in support.

It remains to be seen where Coupar’s supporters would swing towards. The NPA previously stated they will field a candidate to replace Coupar.

With under two months until election day, one-in-three respondents (34.1%) are still undecided. This survey has a margin of error of 5.2% 19 times out of 20.

Interestingly, the survey also queried respondents about their first and second choice for mayor, which found 29.3% support for Hardwick, 29% for Sim, 20.3% for Stewart, 14.8% for Coupar, 7.6% for Marissen, and 9.8% for other candidates. This shows the potential level of support the candidates could have.

As well, TEAM’s commissioned survey gauged the sentiment over Vancouver City Council’s recently approved Broadway Plan of densifying the Central Broadway corridor with additional housing and office uses, with towers permitted near the future Broadway subway stations. More than half (56%) of respondents indicated their opposition to the Broadway Plan, while four-in-10 (41%) “strongly disagreed” with the approval. About four-in-10 (38%) also support the Broadway Plan.

Hardwick, who is a sitting city councillor, has been notable for her opposition to the Broadway Plan and criticism of tower-based developments, the municipal government’s dependence on development-driven revenues to fund community facilities and infrastructure, and the need for added housing supply.

A separate survey independently conducted by Mainstreet Research in late July found a tight four-way race, with Stewart leading slightly, and Hardwick, Sim, and Marissen essentially neck-to-neck.

In the 2018 civic election, Stewart narrowly won his mayoral bid, just 957 votes ahead of Sim, who was representing the NPA at the time.

The civic election is scheduled for October 15, 2022.

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