TransLink service cuts could cost the economy $1 billion per year

TransLink service cuts could cost Metro Vancouver's economy $1 billion per year

TransLink's trolley bus and SkyTrain Expo Line. (EB Adventure Photography/Shutterstock)

So far in the provincial election campaign period, BC’s political parties have focused on promising to build new and improved infrastructure in their transportation platforms.

This includes the BC NDP’s commitment of completing SkyTrain Millennium Line’s extension between Arbutus and the University of British Columbia, and the Conservative Party of BC’s promise of extending SkyTrain Expo Line between Surrey City Centre and Newton.

Both major parties have also committed to building new regional rail/commuter rail within the Lower Mainland, and the BC NDP has vowed to provide seniors with free public transit during non-peak hours.

Much less attention has been given to TransLink’s forthcoming fiscal cliff starting in 2026, when the public transit authority is forecast to see an annual $600 million operating revenue shortfall due to a combination of the depletion of existing provincial operating subsidies, higher operating costs (inflation and labour agreements), lower gas tax revenues (due to the growing adoption of battery-electric vehicles), and lower fare revenue (although ridership has seen a strong rebound to over 90% of pre-pandemic volumes, there are fewer passengers using monthly passes).

You might also like:

In July 2024, TransLink warned that if this operating revenue shortfall is not filled by the provincial and/or federal governments, it could be forced to cut 50% of overall bus service levels, with 145 bus routes out of a network of over 220 bus routes eliminated, and cut SkyTrain and SeaBus services by 30%. West Coast Express could also be discontinued.

This would be akin to the vastly reduced TransLink service levels in 2020 upon the onset of the pandemic.

So far, the BC Conservatives have promised to provide interim funding over two years to fill TransLink’s operating revenue shortfall, while they perform a full audit and identify new stable long-term revenue sources for the public transit authority. Beyond the two years of interim provincial funding, the party states there would be “no more bailouts” for TransLink.

TransLink and its Mayors’ Council have been requesting new revenue tools that reduce the dependency on fare revenues and the dwindling gas tax.

But if the unlikely worst-case scenario were allowed to be played out by a provincial government led by the BC NDP or BC Conservatives, from ignoring and not addressing the fiscal cliff that begins in 2026, it could cost Metro Vancouver’s economy over $1 billion each year. This is according to a new report by mobility consulting firm InterVISTAS, commissioned by TransLink, that quantifies the potential impacts.

Metro Vancouver households could see an average of $1,000 in increased costs each year, which accounts for the higher cost to find alternative modes of transportation, lower wages and productivity due to reduced job access, vehicle operating costs, increased cost of goods due to freight and truck congestion, and increased ICBC premiums from more vehicle collisions.

On an annual basis, the economic costs of finding alternative transportation mdoes is up to $715 million, lower wages and productivity is up to $266 million, vehicle operating costs is up to $56 million, ICBC premiums is up to $57 million, and increased cost of goods is up to about $11 million.

The significant curtailing of TransLink services would reduce the number of public transit trips by 32 million to 35 million per year, with most of these trips shifted to personal vehicles and ridehailing.

Household car ownership could increase by over 20,000 vehicles, and over one million additional ridehailing or taxi trips could be made each year.

With more people turning to cars to get around, road congestion would increase by up to 20%, with over 200 million hours of car and truck congestion. It is anticipated that trucks delivering goods and fulfilling services could see about 200,000 hours of additional wait time per year due to increased traffic, which is not conducive for Canada’s largest port located in Metro Vancouver.

Fewer trips made by public transit would also mean fewer people walking and cycling for some legs of their trip. Overall, an additional 300 million vehicle would be travelled annually.

“With such substantial reductions in service, it may no longer be practical for some users to take transit as regularly as they once did, and they will switch modes. Others may experience longer journey times or perhaps not be able to travel to their preferred destination and instead settle for more local alternatives or not make those trips at all,” reads the report.

While some people may switch modes, some trips that would otherwise be made by public transit may not be made, which would lead to reduced social activities and less consumer spending benefiting shops, restaurants, entertainment, and other services.

It would also hurt Metro Vancouver’s economic competitive advantage and ability to attract global labour talent, in addition to particularly impacting the mobility of youth, students, and seniors.

Currently, Metro Vancouver’s public transit system by TransLink sees some of the highest ridership levels among the largest networks in Canada and the United States.

You might also like: