TransLink could axe 50% of buses and 30% of SkyTrain service

TransLink collapse: 50% of bus service and 30% of SkyTrain and SeaBus services could be eliminated due to funding shortfall

Scenario 1 service cuts starting in 2026. (TransLink)

In a drastic move that would set ripples across Metro Vancouver, TransLink is facing the grim possibility of slashing up to half of its bus services, significantly reducing SkyTrain, SeaBus, and HandyDART services, and potentially eliminating the West Coast Express commuter rail line altogether.

When it comes to what this means bus services, about 145 bus routes out of TransLink’s total network of over 220 bus routes would be eliminated. The bus services that would remain in operation would also experience reduced frequencies and service hours.

The impact would essentially be equivalent to the recent labour strikes that shut down much of the services or the deep cuts to services in 2020 amidst the pandemic’s sudden onset — but on at least a semi-permanent basis.

The proposed calamity, driven by a severe funding shortfall starting in the second half of this decade, threatens to disrupt how hundreds of residents and visitors rely on public transit to get around daily. This growing possibility is being presented by TransLink staff to TransLink’s Mayors’ Council in a public meeting today.

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As the public transit authority grapples with the economic aftermath of the pandemic and ongoing financial challenges, the spectre of diminished public transit service levels looms large. It raises urgent questions about the future of public transit in a region that has become greatly reliant on public transit over the past 25 years.

If this is prolonged, it would particularly impact low-income and late-night workers, youth, and seniors, push more people into buying their own personal car, hamper economic activity, and incapacitate the region’s high-density, transit-oriented development strategies. All the while, Metro Vancouver is experiencing rapid population growth, with its population conservatively expected to grow from three million residents in 2024 to four million by 2040.

Two scenarios for withdrawing services would mean 500,000 to 675,000 residents would no longer be within walking distance of a public transit stop, and between 170,000 and 265,000 jobs would no longer be accessible to public transit.

All of this stems from TransLink’s over $600 million annual operating budget shortfall starting in 2026 due to declining fuel tax revenue from the growing adoption of battery-electric vehicles and improved fuel economy, fare increases held far below inflation since 2020, and cost inflationary pressures.

Despite Metro Vancouver’s public transit ridership rebounding to over 90% of pre-pandemic levels, fare revenues remain lower. This is attributed to passengers purchasing cheaper single-trip fare products for the reduced number of trips they now make, often due to reasons such as semi-remote office work, rather than opting for monthly passes.

Also, the Government of British Columbia’s last round of pandemic-time operating subsidies for TransLink will be fully drained by the end of 2025.

Since 2020, TransLink has received a total of $1.3 billion in total pandemic-time financial relief from senior governments, including $644 million in initial joint provincial and federal subsidies in September 2020 for forecasted revenue shortfalls in 2020 and 2021, $176 million in joint funding from senior governments in January 2022 for revenue shortfalls in 2022 and 2023, and $479 million from the provincial government in March 2023 for revenue shortfalls between 2023 and 2025.

TransLink is warning that if sufficient operating revenue is not secured by Spring 2025 — such as new revenue streams and/or new additional operating subsidies from the provincial and federal governments — it will be forced to prepare for the reduction of services, with the changes taking effect in 2026.

But how realistic is it that the provincial and federal governments would allow these worst-case scenarios to unfold, given the catastrophic impact they would have on the region, as well as on public opinion and political support?

Fundamentally, is TransLink’s public transit system in Metro Vancouver now considered “too big to fail”?

The public transit authority’s warnings come just before the October 2024 provincial election campaign period begins.

Vicious cycle

The sweeping cuts to service would lead to a further reduction in ridership and a subsequent decline in fare revenue, resulting in a vicious cycle that impacts TransLink’s ability to sustain its service levels, and leads to even more cuts.

TransLink warns that if a solution to the revenue shortfall is not found in time, the reductions implemented would not be easily reversed, even if funding becomes available at a later date. The public transit authority has indicated that it would take time to hire and train workers, which suggests the possibility of mass staff layoffs starting in 2026.

As of the end of 2023, TransLink had a total workforce size of nearly 8,600 staff, including 1,300 with BC Rapid Transit Company (SkyTrain’s Expo and Millennium lines), 6,040 with Coast Mountain Bus Company (bus and SeaBus), 917 with corporate, 330 with Transit Police, and only eight with West Coast Express (only administrative positions as the operations of the commuter rail service is contracted to Bombardier for operations and VIA Rail for maintenance).

The possibility that bus stop poles may need to be reinstalled is noted, and that the unused bus fleet could even be decommissioned, retired, or sold.

“It would take at least a decade to recover to even our current levels of transit service,” reads TransLink’s report on recovering from such service cuts.

“Beyond direct customer impacts, transit cuts would have other wider effects on our region. Shutting down substantial parts of the transit system would reduce our ability to quickly resume growth if investment returns.”

All expansion planning halted for bare minimum operations

Currently, TransLink’s $21 billion strategy to expand and improve its services over 10 years through 2025 is unfunded.

The 2022-approved strategy includes the doubling of bus service across the region, including new Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) and RapidBus routes, as well as transitioning to battery-electric buses, building SkyTrain Millennium Line’s University of British Columbia extension and Simon Fraser University’s Burnaby Mountain gondola, and increase capacity and service levels on all three SkyTrain lines and on SeaBus.

But the continued planning for these new and improved services and infrastructure would come to a halt.

Under the life support mode, TransLink would cut its work and scope and “undertake only the work required to safely operate and maintain remaining services and programs. All work would be stopped on expansion and upgrade planning, improvements to the system, working with municipalities and other partners, and customer outreach beyond what is legally required. Reductions in all areas, programs and services would be expected.”

It is estimated this downsized planning work and operations would save about $175 million each year on average.

Over much of the past decade, TransLink greatly expanded its mandate to include the active transportation modes of walking and cycling infrastructure and initiatives. To save money, this would be “almost eliminated.”

Maintenance funding to municipal governments would be entirely eliminated to save about $41 million per year.

In May 2024, TransLink indicated its multi-modal “Local Government Funding Programs” could be eliminated beginning in 2026, with 2025 being the final program year. The program was launched in 2017 to help fund a portion of the cost incurred by municipal governments to build new and improved pedestrian sidewalks, bike lanes, bus speed and reliability infrastructure, road safety and reliability improvements, seismic upgrades, and pavement repairs. According to TransLink, between 2017 and 2024, this program has provided municipal governments across the region with a combined total of $887 million towards 733 projects.

In June 2024, the public transit authority announced its first measures to improve its financial picture by $90 million per year through reduced expenditures and revenue opportunities, including forthcoming new enforcement measures to curb fare evasion.

After all these measures are accounted for — before any cuts to service levels — the revenue shortfall drops from over $600 million to $365 million per year.

Two drastic scenarios for service cuts

To cover the remaining revenue shortfall of $365 million per year, TransLink would proceed with moving forward with one of two scenarios for service cuts.

The first scenario of “maximizing ridership” would cut bus routes with low ridership and fare revenue, which would generally result in preserving more frequent and better bus routes. Such bus routes that would be protected are mainly located in Vancouver, Burnaby, Richmond, and central Surrey. As a result, there would be little to no bus routes in Coquitlam, Port Coquitlam, Port Moody, Langley, White Rock, South Delta, and North Vancouver. Only 90 bus routes out of over 200 bus routes would remain.

The second scenario of “maximizing coverage” focuses on maintaining a basic network of bus services with a mix of low- and high-performing bus routes. However, this would still mean only 85 bus routes would remain, with more than 65% of bus routes eliminated. Some bus routes would end service as early as 8 pm.

Scenario 1 service cuts starting in 2026. (TransLink)

Scenario 2 service cuts starting in 2026. (TransLink)

Overall bus services would fall by 45% in the first scenario and 50% in the second scenario.

For both scenarios, HandyDART services would be cut by 35% and mainly focus on completing medical trips, with few available trips for other types of trips.

Under the first scenario, the West Coast Express commuter rail would revert to its previous pandemic-time frequencies of three roundtrip trains per weekday instead of the current normal five roundtrips. But if the second scenario were pursued, the West Coast Express would be completely eliminated. Out of all TransLink services, the commuter rail lags the most in ridership recovery coming out of the pandemic, with its ridership returning to slightly over 50% of 2019 levels as of the end of 2023.

SeaBus ferry service would be down by 15% in the first scenario, including ending the service one hour earlier and reducing weekday peak frequencies to every 15 minutes. For the second scenario, ferry service would be cut by 30%, including ending the service one hour earlier and reducing frequencies to every 15 minutes during weekday peak periods and every 30 minutes at all other times.

As for the service reductions on SkyTrain’s main network of the Expo and Millennium lines, the first scenario would lead to a 10% cut, with peak- and off-peak reductions and the possibility of not operating the stations with lower ridership. Alternatively, the second scenario cuts SkyTrain service on the Expo and Millennium lines by 30%, with reduced frequency and span of service.

No cuts to SkyTrain Canada Line

For both scenarios in cutting services, SkyTrain’s Canada Line is spared, unlike the Expo and Millennium lines.

As the Canada Line is separately privately operated under contract, there is less flexibility for how TransLink can reduce this service to cut costs.

ProTrans BC, a subsidiary of AtkinsRealis (formerly SNC Lavalin), is the operator of the Canada Line through at least the early 2040s as part of the public-private partnership that saw a private consortium design, build, and partially finance the construction of the project.

Both scenarios would only reverse the funded 2025 peak service increases on the Canada Line in 2026, which would return it to the 2024 (current) service levels.

The separate Canada Line system saw a 20% year-over-year increase in boardings in 2023, totalling over 140 million over the course of the year. It averaged 120,000 boardings per weekday — up from about 153,000 per weekday in pre-pandemic 2019 — as well as 100,000 per Saturday and 84,000 per Sunday/holiday.

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