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"Existential crisis": Possible TransLink service cuts would overburden bridges and tunnels with vehicle traffic

Kenneth Chan
Kenneth Chan
|
Jul 31 2024, 11:28 pm
"Existential crisis": Possible TransLink service cuts would overburden bridges and tunnels with vehicle traffic
@ggrewal0305/X | Michal Urbanek/Shutterstock

Last week saw a shocking TransLink announcement on the possibility that Metro Vancouver’s public transit services could be largely curtailed by 2026 due to funding challenges.

In the aftermath, some municipal governments are beginning to sound the alarm over what this could mean for their communities, with the first jurisdiction publicly reacting to the scenarios being the City of Delta.

TransLink indicated it is facing a $600 million annual operating revenue shortfall starting in 2026 due to a perfect storm of factors.

This includes growing costs from inflation, lower fare revenues despite a strong ridership recovery (due to a larger proportion of passengers buying cheaper single-trip fares for the fewer trips they take instead of the more expensive monthly passes), fare increases being far lower than the rate of inflation since 2020, and falling gas tax revenues due to the accelerating adoption of battery-electric vehicles, with 2022 being regarded as the peak for gas tax revenues.

Moreover, the provincial government’s current operating subsidy for TransLink of $479 million is only intended to help cover revenue shortfalls between 2023 and the end of 2025.

TransLink first made public the severity of its financial challenges in October 2023, when it announced a forecast cumulative deficit of $4.7 billion between 2026 and 2033. This does not account for service expansion and infrastructure projects, as it only enables the maintenance of the status quo.

If the funding gap is not filled, the public transit authority warns its scenarios show it would need to cut up to 145 bus routes out of the total network of 220 bus routes, and reduce frequencies and service hours for the remaining routes. This would represent an approximate 50% decrease in overall bus service levels across Metro Vancouver.

As lower ridership bus routes would be up first for the chopping block, there would be little to no bus routes in North Vancouver, Coquitlam, Port Coquitlam, Port Moody, Langley, White Rock, and Delta, based on TransLink’s scenarios outlined in provided maps, which showed a bus network coloured in red — primarily cancelled bus routes across the region.

There would also be major cuts to SkyTrain’s Expo and Millennium lines, including the possibility of not opening lower ridership stations for service, and SeaBus and HandyDART. West Coast Express commuter rail could be eliminated entirely.

translink 2026 service cuts scenario 1

Scenario 1 service cuts starting in 2026. (TransLink)

translink 2026 service cuts scenario 1

Scenario 2 service cuts starting in 2026. (TransLink)

Up to 675,000 residents would no longer be within walking distance of a public transit stop, and up to 265,000 jobs would no longer be accessible to public transit. This would particularly impact low-income and late-night workers, youth, students, and seniors, who may not have other transportation options.

On Tuesday evening, Delta City Council convened in a rare emergency meeting to discuss TransLink’s potential service cuts and the next steps the City of Delta could take to avoid what Delta city councillor Dylan Kruger termed as an “existential crisis for Delta and for the region.”

“There was a map that was included in the information that are provided are members of council,” said Delta Mayor Harvie during the special City Council session called on a short notice.

“And what is stunning is that when you look at the map, all the busses that currently service South Delta riders to Richmond to Bridgeport would be eliminated, totally eliminated.”

Harvie expressed concern over the possibility that with little to no bus service, tens of thousands of additional vehicles would jam up the region’s major bridge and tunnel crossings, including the George Massey Tunnel.

According to City of Delta staff, the George Massey Tunnel saw an average of 90,465 vehicles per day in May 2024, which represents an increase of nearly 5,000 vehicles compared to May 2023. Harvie noted that he will be working with his South of Fraser mayoral counterparts of Surrey and White Rock to make a joint public position on what the drastic cuts cold mean for the already congested tunnel.

Earlier this year, Metro Vancouver experienced firsthand the impact of losing all TransLink buses. As reported by Daily Hive Urbanized on January 23, 2024, the complete withdrawal of TransLink’s bus and SeaBus services on that single day led to significantly higher traffic congestion throughout the region. Major crossings, highways, and arterial routes were particularly affected, with Google Maps’ real-time traffic function displaying an unusually red-coloured road network.

vancouver traffic strike

Unusual road traffic congestion at 10 am on January 23, 2024, during the one-day full shutdown of TransLink and SeaBus services due to labour action. (Google Maps)

According to the provincial government, based on pre-pandemic data, public transit bus services see an average of 16,000 riders per day on the George Massey Tunnel, 33,000 on the Lions Gate Bridge, and 27,000 on the Ironworkers Memorial Bridge. Up to 25,000 bus transit trips per day use the Granville Street Bridge, according to the City of Vancouver.

“If we don’t find some kind of a path forward, we would lose almost every one of our major bus routes. I don’t think there’s one left that wasn’t referenced,” said Kruger, who called the special meeting and described the impact on Delta.

“Access to reliable public transit is not just a convenience, it’s a lifeline for so many. It’s freedom of mobility for so many of our citizens who depend on it every day. And the comments about cars in the Massey Tunnel are very correct. This is not just about people who take public transit, as this is also about existing car commuters who will see they’re already long, slow and painful commutes get a heck of a lot worse if they see their roads congested with even more folks who were previously taking transit now on the roads.”

During the session, the discussions reiterated TransLink staff and TransLink’s Mayors’ Council’s calls for not only interim funding to avoid the fiscal cliff and service cutbacks over the short term, but also new significant permanent revenue sources that reduce the reliance on fare revenues, replace the shrinking size of gas tax revenues, and to cover growing operating and capital costs of new and improved services.

The $600 million annual revenue shortfall starting in 2026 only relates to maintaining existing service levels. As previously reported by Daily Hive Urbanized, if TransLink were to fully enact its 10-year service improvement and expansion plans, it would increase TransLink’s annual operating budget by about $1.2 billion annually starting in 2035. This includes the 10-year plan’s strategy of doubling bus service across the region, which includes rolling out new Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) routes, as well as the UBC SkyTrain extension, SFU Burnaby Gondola, and increasing service levels on SkyTrain and SeaBus. It should also be noted that this 10-year plan carries an estimated $21 billion capital cost, which is unfunded.

In 2023, TransLink’s operating budget reached $2.2 billion — comparable to the City of Toronto’s Toronto Transit Commission’s (TTC) budget of $2.3 billion and the $3.1 billion budget of Montreal’s ARTM.

“We shouldn’t be having this debate. We should be here talking about how to grow the transit system, how to get more reliable bus service,” continued Kruger.

“But instead, we’re here fighting for what little service we already have. It is not sustainable to have our public transit authority unable to make five-year capital plans because they don’t know whether or not they’re going to be able to have the funding in place, relying on the benevolence of government to provide one-off checks tied to specific projects when they feel like it does not allow for smart, long-term planning.”

As part of last week’s shocking TransLink announcement, which was strategically made before the October 2024 provincial election, the Mayors’ Council is asking BC’s political parties to commit to creating a new $3.4 billion annual permanent transit fund jointly provided by the provincial and federal governments, including $2.9 billion annually towards the SkyTrain extension to the University of British Columbia, rapid transit to the North Shore, and the first BRT routes. Another $500 million annually would be identified by new revenue sources towards covering operating costs starting in 2026.

The $2.9 billion calculation would include the federal government’s allocation to TransLink from the new Canada Public Transit Fund — the long-promised federal permanent public transit fund — towards capital costs (not to be confused with operating costs), with $30 billion set aside over 10 years between 2026 and 2036.

At the end of the session, Delta City Council unanimously approved directions to perform advocacy within their jurisdiction to inform residents of the potential outcomes and lobby the provincial government and political candidates.

So far, the Conservative Party of BC is the only party to directly respond to TransLink’s pleas with some specific new policy measures, with party leader John Rustad indicating last week that if elected, he would perform an in-depth audit of TransLink, and provide “stop-gap” funding to subsidize two years of operational costs while a “Back-on-Track Plan” is created for a new sustainable funding model to address “financial mismanagement, overcrowding,  and capacity issues.” While interim stop-gap funding would be provided to avoid the collapse of services starting in 2026, Rustad stated there would be no more “billion-dollar bailouts.”

In reaction, the BC NDP’s Rob Fleming, the Minister of Transportation and Infrastructure, suggested the BC Conservatives and BC United would “cut billions” in funding to public transit, leading to higher fares and tolls, and take on a confrontational position with TransLink and its Mayors’ Council.

“In just the last two years, we provided almost $800 million to ensure services were not cut and to expand much-needed services across the region,” Fleming told Daily Hive Urbanized last week.

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Kenneth ChanKenneth Chan

Kenneth is the Urbanized Editor of Daily Hive. He covers everything from local architecture and urban issues to design, economic development, and more. He has worked in various roles in the company since joining in 2012. Got a story idea? Email Kenneth at [email protected]

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