A lot of immigrants leave Canada within their first few years -- new report suggests why

Statistics Canada has released a major report after studying immigration and emigration patterns in the country over 35+ years.

The national statistics agency concluded that 5.1% of immigrants who came to Canada between 1982 and 2017 emigrated within just five years of getting here. This percentage rises to 17.5% 20 years after admission.

Data analysis showed that the annual probability of emigrating peaks between three to seven years of landing in the country, being the highest at “almost 1.4%” in the fourth and fifth years.

What happens during the fourth and fifth years?

Experts say a few things can be assumed about why Canadian immigrants leave four to five years in.

“First, this period may reflect the length of time that immigrants try to integrate into Canada. They attempt to find a job, a place to live, and to adapt to life in Canada. After a few years in the country, some may decide to emigrate, for example, because of challenges related to integrating into the labour market,” Statistics Canada said.

The second reason could be the time it takes to acquire Canadian citizenship, which has changed a lot in the last decade.

The study takes into account a pre-2017 Canada, where you could become a citizen by staying in Canada 183 per year in four of the six years preceding the citizenship application.

However, now, you need to be physically present in the country for at least 1,095 days (three years) during the five years before the date you sign your application.

“Since Canadian citizenship is associated with a number of benefits, such as the possibility of returning to Canada at any time and receiving assistance from the Canadian government in the event of an emergency abroad, obtaining citizenship may be part of the migration strategy of some of these immigrants,” experts shared.

Results of the study show that the probability of emigrating is probability increases to more than 10% a decade after admission into Canada.

“Slightly more than one in five immigrants have emigrated 25 years after their admission to Canada, based on the Longitudinal Immigration Database (LMDB) and this study’s definition. These results indicate that while emigration of immigrants is quite low annually, it becomes a relatively significant phenomenon over the long term.”

Most emigrants were born in these countries

In December 2023, Statistics Canada noted that during the third quarter of the year, the country saw the fourth-largest departure of its residents in 73 years.

More than 32,000 people left the country — a 3% rise in emigration.

The following graph shows a quarterly outflow of Canadian emigrants — those leaving the country to immigrate elsewhere

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Friday’s report shared a list of countries many immigrants leaving Canada are originally from or were born in.

“More than 30% of immigrants whose country of birth is Taiwan, the United States, France, or Hong Kong emigrated within 20 years after admission. This percentage also exceeds 25% for immigrants born in Lebanon. In addition, five years after admission, about 15% of immigrants from the United States or France had emigrated,” researchers observed.

Things that factor into this could include standard-of-living differences between Canada and their birth country. If it is similar and geographically closer, emigration is likelier.

On the other hand, those who’ve moved to Canada from countries experiencing political instability — like Hong Kong or Lebanon — may view their settlement and departure as “two stages of a more complex migration strategy.”

Emigration rates are also particularly low for certain countries, like Vietnam, Sri Lanka, and Jamaica, with less than 10% of immigrants born in the aforementioned countries leaving the True North.

More factors influence the emigration decision

How someone got to Canada matters when they make the decision to leave it. What visa was it — Express Entry, family sponsorship, investor visa, work permit, a provincial program, or something else?

“Just over 30% of immigrants born in Vietnam and almost 43% born in Sri Lanka were admitted as refugees, compared with less than 15% of all immigrants,” the agency noted.

Furthermore, immigrants who hold a non-permanent resident study permit prior to being admitted are “especially likely” to leave Canada.

Age, family structures, marital status, language skills, and the region you first arrive in, all play a huge role as well.

“More than 70% of immigrants born in Jamaica and admitted between 1982 and 2017 were admitted in the family sponsorship category, compared with about 35% of all immigrants,” the report states. “These Jamaican-born immigrants often joined family members in Canada in the 1980s following the development of family immigration policies.”

Statistics Canada data suggests that immigrants who never had kids in their tax family are “substantially more likely” to emigrate than those who have children.

Immigrants with higher education levels and those in the investor and entrepreneur categories are likelier to leave Canada than people in the refugee or caregiver categories.

Canada’s immigration imbalance

Canada has been cornered into a “population trap” intensified by its immigration policies, states a report published by one of the country’s largest banks on January 15.

The special report, co-authored by National Bank economists Stéfane Marion and Alexandra Ducharme, warned that while they think immigration tends to be good for a county’s potential GDP, “all good things have their limits.”

The term “population trap” can be defined as a scenario where increases in living standards aren’t possible because the population is growing so fast that all available savings are utilized to maintain the current capital-labour ratio, notes the report.

The economists pointed to Canada’s population growth in 2023 as 3.2% — five times higher than the average of the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD).

This type of growth was seen in all 10 provinces, which saw their population increase twice as fast as the OECD average.

In 2023 alone, Canada’s population increased by over 1.2 million. Canada’s goal for permanent residents in 2024 is 485,000, and it has a target of accepting 500,000 new permanent residents in 2025 and 2026.

Just over two weeks ago, Immigration Minister Marc Miller announced that Canada will cap international student visas for two years.

“It’s unacceptable that some private institutions have taken advantage of international students by operating under-resourced campuses, lacking supports for students in charging high tuition fees, all the while significantly increasing their intake of international students,” he said during a press conference in Montreal.

He added the temporary application cap is expected to result in approximately 364,000 approved international student study permits, which is a decrease of 35% from 2023.