Should the Vancouver Canucks actually trade J.T. Miller?
It’s arguably the biggest question that new Vancouver Canucks general manager Patrik Allvin must answer.
Should the Canucks actually trade J.T. Miller?
Multiple reports suggest that a barrage of teams are after him.
And, why wouldn’t they be?
He’s coming off a hat trick against the Winnipeg Jets.
Miller has been one of the best forwards in hockey over the last three seasons, ranking 15th in the NHL with 162 points, and 22nd with 0.99 points per game.
The players ahead of him on the point leaders list since the beginning of 2019-20 are, well, superstars.
Points leaders from the beginning of the 2019-20 season to January 28, 2022. (NHL.com)
There are some compelling reasons to trade Miller, along with solid reasons to keep him. Let’s lay those out here.
Reasons to trade Miller
1. Jim Benning left the Canucks in a mess
If the Canucks weren’t a playoff long shot with no cap space and depleted draft capital, then trading Miller wouldn’t be as likely.
However, it’s clear that the Canucks will have to make creative, dollar-in, dollar-out moves if they want to improve the team over the next two seasons.
One creative, bold move would be to trade Miller.
2. His value might be at an all-time high
Is it possible that we’re currently seeing peak Miller?
Based on aging curves, that’s a real possibility.
However, Miller is a bit of a unicorn in the sense that he didn’t truly break out until the age of 26. Previous data shows that the majority of players hit their peak at age 24.
One of the big risks in trading Miller is that the answer to this question is unknown.
3. Could recoup high draft capital and talented players
The amount of teams in on Miller could spark a bidding war.
Bruins blog Stanley Cup of Chowder reached out to me recently for some Miller trade insight. One of the deals I proposed looked like this:
- To Boston: Miller, Tucker Poolman, 2022 3rd round pick (from WPG)
- To Vancouver: Brandon Carlo, Jake Debrusk, 2022 1st round pick
This trade is nearly dollar in, dollar out. The combined cap hit of Miller and Poolman is $7.75 million. Carlo and Debrusk combine for $7.78 million.
The Bruins have been trying to offload Debrusk, who’s on an expiring contract, for some time. However, Carlo is a 25-year-old, right-shot defenceman who is in the first year of a six-year extension.
Boston would probably be loath to replace Carlo with Poolman on their right side, but Vancouver needs to command a high asking price, like the one above, for Miller’s services.
4. He might be past his prime once the Canucks are contenders
Very few believe the Canucks could contend for the Stanley Cup this season.
Realistically, the Canucks true value reflects that of a Wild Card team that could be pesky in the playoffs if everything goes right.
Work needs to be done in order for Vancouver to be a perennial Cup contender.
When that time comes, Miller will likely be past the age of 30.
Reasons to keep Miller
1. He’s really, really good
Uh, yeah.
If he keeps up performances like the one he had against the Winnipeg Jets, fans soon might start asking this question.
#Canucks It might be smarter to sign J.T. Miller to an 8 year contract extension. š¤
— CanucksAbbyFan2 (@Fan2Abby) January 28, 2022
2. One of the most versatile forwards in hockey
Miller isn’t just one of the league leaders in points, but his versatility for playing both centre and the wing has been extremely valuable for the Canucks.
He also commands attention from the opposition when he’s on the power play, no matter where he is on the ice.
Miller also kills penalties. He’s recently formed the team’s top penalty-killing forward unit alongside Tyler Motte.
The 28-year-old also has a level of grit and tenacity that isn’t always evident among star players.
3. Most of his comparables sustained production in their 30s
Because Miller’s ascent to first-line status didn’t happen until the age of 26, there aren’t a lot of comparable players over the past 20 years.
Those who are comparable to Miller often sustained production into their mid-30s.
One of the strongest comparable players to Miller might be Blake Wheeler.
The fellow American, like Miller, saw his value increase following a trade.
Wheeler had his breakout a year earlier than Miller, at the age of 25, during his first full season with the Jets.
Over the last seven seasons, Wheeler has averaged 0.98 points per game. His peak came at the ages of 31 and 32 when he registered back-to-back 91-point campaigns.
Who’s to say Miller can’t follow a similar trajectory?
4. Trading him could hurt the team’s psyche
From the outside, it seemed evident that the departures of Jacob Markstrom, Chris Tanev, Tyler Toffoli, and Troy Stecher during the 2020 offseason weren’t good for the dressing room.
The Canucks started off slow in 2020-21 and never recovered.
Miller is one of the most vocal guys on the ice for the Canucks. You can assume it’s the same in the dressing room.
If he is traded, how will the Canucks dressing room react to losing their best forward?
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