"Crucial moment": New federal COVID-19 modelling warns of rapid acceleration

Sep 3 2021, 11:37 am

The Public Health Agency of Canada has provided an update to the national epidemiology of COVID-19. New modelling warns that rapid acceleration of COVID-19 cases is occurring across the country causing an increase in severe illnesses.

Along with the increase in cases, the new data highlights that hospital and ICU occupancy is increasing across Canada, following the rapid increase of cases in some regions.

While Alberta has been hit the hardest by the most recent surge in COVID-19, hitting 1,339 new cases on Thursday afternoon, transmission is increasing in most regions.

According to the data presented by health officials, over the last seven days there were an average of 3,486 cases across the country, including 1,230 hospitalizations, and 443 people in intensive care. There have also been 13 new deaths.

“This is a crucial moment,” said Dr. Theresa Tam, Canada’s Public Health Officer.

“We have a window of opportunity to rapidly accelerate vaccine uptake, and close the protection gap in younger age groups.”

health canada

Public Health Agency of Canada

Adding to the concern for health officials, while vaccine coverage has increased overall, uptake is slowing.

New COVID-19 cases among the unvaccinated were 12 times higher than those in fully vaccinated people.

COVID-19

Public Health Agency of Canada

This trend is magnified when looking at hospitalizations.

Hospitalized cases among unvaccinated people were 36 times higher than fully vaccinated.

The modelling suggests that vaccination rates among those 18 to 39-years-old need to increase, as it could slow the growth of COVID-19 transmission, which is being driven primarily by the Delta Variant.

The Public Health Agency of Canada also released some new numbers in regards to overall vaccine coverage in the country.

Over 84% of eligible people 12 and older have at least one dose of the vaccine, with 77% being fully vaccinated.

COVID-19 canada

Health Canada

Health officials have also presented a long-range forecast for the spread of COVID-19. It suggests a strong resurgence could still be facing us this fall, but enforcing safety protocols could slow the rapid acceleration.

If current vaccination rates are not increased, officials warns that hospital capacity could be exceeded. If vaccination rates increase, the risk will be greatly reduced.

Since the start of the pandemic, there have been 1,507,051 cases of COVID-19 and 26,991 deaths reported in Canada.

Amir AliAmir Ali

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