Canucks luck? Vancouver on pace to set 21st century PDO record
The Vancouver Canucks’ massive improvement this season has incited a debate among hockey fans. Did the Canucks transform from a lottery team into a juggernaut in one offseason, or are they the beneficiary of a legendary streak of good puck luck?
PDO is a stat that is often used as a proxy for luck in hockey. It combines a team’s save percentage and on-ice shooting percentage to create a rough approximation of how many bounces a team is getting.
The Canucks have a 105.2 PDO in all situations so far this year. According to popular hockey analytics account @JFreshHockey, that’s the highest mark through the 41-game mark since 1995-96, and the fifth highest since 1980. The barometer for PDO is typically set at 100, as it’s the sum of the save percentage and shooting percentage from across the league.
Highest PDO at the 41-game mark of the season (all situations) since 1979-80:
1. 1984-85 Edmonton Oilers (106.5)
2. 1983-84 Edmonton Oilers (106.3)
3. 1983-84 New York Islanders (105.3)
4. 1995-96 Pittsburgh Penguins (105.2)
5. 2023-24 Vancouver Canucks (105.2)— JFresh (@JFreshHockey) January 12, 2024
The other teams on the list are quite impressive and feature legends of the game like Wayne Gretzky, Jari Kurri, Mario Lemieux, Jaromir Jagr, Ron Francis, Mike Bossy, and Bryan Trottier.
The creator of the PDO stat, Brian King, even chimed in on the debate, making a post on X about the Canucks, saying, “This is not sustainable.”
This is not sustainable.
The stat was also created for individual players, not teams. https://t.co/szfZPtcZWQ
— PDOKing (@Kinger999) January 12, 2024
There are reasons to believe that this Canucks team’s high PDO could be slightly more sustainable than typical.
In a 2016 interview with The Sports Daily‘s Alan Draper, King says that he expects teams with an elite goalie to finish with a higher PDO. Thatcher Demko fulfills that requirement, although the benchmark that King puts forward for teams with great goalies is 101.5, still far off the 105.2 mark the Canucks are rocking.
In terms of individuals, the Canucks have five regular players that are shooting over 20%, including Dakota Joshua, J.T. Miller, Brock Boeser, Nils Höglander, and Sam Lafferty.
Many of these players have seen massive increases year-over-year. Take for example Brock Boeser, whose shooting percentage jumped from 10.1% to 23.3% this year. Is that a sustainable jump? Only time will tell.
However, the Canucks do have several talented shooters that can be expected to finish with a better shooting percentage than the league average. Score and game effects could also be playing a factor, as the Canucks often have been leading in the third period and thus see a higher quantity of shots.
The Boston Bruins had the NHL’s highest PDO last season at 104, showing that it is possible to stay hot over an entire season. However, the Bruins then promptly lost in the first round of the playoffs. Does a similar journey await the Canucks?
On the other hand, the Canucks have had plenty of bad luck throughout franchise history. There are countless examples of things not going their way. Maybe this year’s PDO heater is the hockey gods’ way of paying it all back.
Follow Channels and Categories