BC Conservatives lead BC NDP for the first time in survey

BC Conservatives lead BC NDP for the first time in pre-election survey

John Rustad. (Conservative Party of BC)

For the first time ever, a public opinion survey shows the Conservative Party of BC has taken the lead over the governing BC NDP party.

A new Mainstreet Research survey conducted in mid-August 2024 shows that the BC Conservatives, led by John Rustad, are leading with 39% among decided voters when asked how they would vote if the provincial election were held today.

This is followed by David Eby’s BC NDP at 36%, Kevin Falcon’s BC United at 12%, and Sonia Furstenau’s BC Greens at 11%.

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In contrast, the polling company’s July 2024 survey found the BC NDP and BC Conservatives tied at 37% each among decided voters, followed by the BC Greens at 12% and BC United at 10%.

This aligns with recent separate surveys conducted by polling firms such as Leger and Research Co., which also showed the trend of the BC Conservatives narrowing the gap with the BC NDP at the expense of BC United.

“The dramatic rise in support levels for the Conservative Party of BC can be attributed to five main factors. Firstly, the increases in awareness, approval ratings and voter support of John Rustad have been significant across all age groups and genders. Next, there is a perception that BC is on the wrong track, and BC Conservative voters are far more likely than most to agree with this. Thirdly, the rise in the popularity of the federal Conservative Party is strongly correlated to the same trend in BC. Fourth, the poor performance of the BC NDP on critical files have left them vulnerable, and lastly, the implosion of Kevin Falcon’s BC United Party has been spectacular — leaving right-wing voters with only one obvious place to turn,” states Leger.

“While the BC NDP scores highest on reconciliation with Indigenous peoples, education, relations with the feds, transportation and the environment, the disapproval ratings are high for their handling of homelessness.”

Mainstreet Research’s August 2024 survey had 962 respondents and a margin of error of +/- 3.2% 19 times out of 20.

The general provincial election is scheduled for Saturday, October 19, 2024.

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