What analytics tell us about new Canucks winger Jake DeBrusk
As expected, the Vancouver Canucks signed a guy named Jake on the opening day of NHL Free Agency.
It just wasn’t the Jake that everyone expected them to sign.
After star winger Jake Guentzel signed with the Tampa Bay Lightning one day prior to free agency, Canucks general manager Patrik Allvin went out and signed 27-year-old winger Jake DeBrusk to a seven-year deal worth $5.5 million per season.
While DeBrusk’s resume isn’t as impressive as Guentzel’s, he is a player beloved by the analytics community.
Jake DeBrusk, signed 7x$5.5M by VAN, is a top six scoring winger with a well-rounded offensive game and good defensive metrics who plays in all situations. Lots of goal-scoring upside even if it's not the most consistent. #Canucks pic.twitter.com/ZAyIBKjxVe
— JFresh (@JFreshHockey) July 1, 2024
In fact, some might suggest that he’s a more well-rounded player than Guentzel, even though Guentzel is undoubtedly a much more prolific offensive player.
So, what exactly makes DeBrusk an analytics darling? Let’s break it down here.
Will DeBrusk be elite offensively for Canucks?
If everything hits right, DeBrusk has the potential to be one of the best goal-scorers in hockey.
Over the last three seasons, DeBrusk has been among the best in the league in terms of both shots on goal, shooting percentage, and goals scored at even strength.
Since 2021-22, DeBrusk’s 1.08 goals per 60 ranks 33rd among all NHLers. He’s basically scoring a goal every 55 minutes he plays at five-on-five. The only Canuck who has been a more efficient goal scorer in the same timespan is Nils Höglander.
One of the most common ways that DeBrusk scores goals is off of the rush. That will be a welcome addition to a Canucks team that struggled to produce rush chances in 2023-24.
If you look at DeBrusk’s goals from the 2022-23 campaign, which was the best statistical season of his career, you’ll see that two of the most common ways he scores are off of the rush and net-front on the power play.
The power-play factor is important for the Canucks as well. It’s no secret that the top unit struggled mightily in the second half of the season. Perhaps moving DeBrusk to net front, and Brock Boeser into a position where he can better utilize his shot, could be the tonic that the Canucks need with the man advantage.
Aside from goal scoring, DeBrusk checks in as above average in a number of other categories, including zone entries and helping his teammates create scoring chances.
There’s an argument that point-wise, he’s also been a bit unlucky. Among top-six players, DeBrusk’s secondary assists per 60 at even strength are among the lowest totals in the NHL. Considering that rates as above average in terms of helping his teammates create scoring chances, there’s definitely room for him to smash his career highs of 27 assists (from his rookie season in 2017-18) and 50 points (2022-23) with the Canucks.
DeBrusk can help the Canucks defensively
The Canucks turned themselves into one of the better defensive teams in hockey last season, so maybe it’s not surprising that they targeted a defensively responsible top-six winger in free agency.
DeBrusk has been one of the better defensive players on a good Boston Bruins team. After being used as primarily a soft-matchup, offensive-zone-start guy during his first few seasons, DeBrusk has been used as a matchup winger in recent years.
In the 2024 playoffs for instance, DeBrusk largely went up against Mitch Marner’s line in their Round 1 matchup against the Toronto Maple Leafs, and against the Aleksander Barkov/Sam Reinhart duo in Round 2 against the Florida Panthers.
DeBrusk’s line struggled against Barkov, but they outscored the Marner line.
Perhaps that shouldn’t be a surprise, as DeBrusk has nine goals and 14 points in 21 career playoff games against the Leafs.
Overall, the Bruins possess the puck more with the puck on the ice, relative to the rest of the team. That’s impressive considering that DeBrusk has taken on more of a matchup role.
The 27-year-old has also added penalty killing to his resume and finished fourth among Bruins forwards in penalty-killing ice time last season. He had the second-lowest expected goals against among Bruins PK forwards last season. Only Danton Heinen, who is also now a Canuck, had a lower expected goals-against total while shorthanded.
Potential red flag
There’s one glaring one with DeBrusk, and that’s consistency.
He regressed last season compared to his career year in 2022-23, with 19 goals and 40 points in 80 games. For comparison’s sake, Dakota Joshua was on pace for more goals and points last season.
Looking at DeBrusk’s production by month last season highlights just how inconsistent he can be.
HockeyReference.com
In fairness, he elevated his game in the postseason, leading all Bruins 11 points in 14 playoff games.
DeBrusk also spent most of last season playing with centres Charlie Coyle, Pavel Zacha, and Morgan Geekie. During his career year in 2022-23, his primary linemates were Patrice Bergeron and Brad Marchand.
If DeBrusk can elevate his game while playing with either Elias Pettersson or J.T. Miller, then there’s a very strong chance that the Canucks will get excess value out of their new winger, at least during the first few seasons of his deal.
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