5 analytical models project Canucks' playoff chances in 2023-24

The Vancouver Canucks begin the 2023-24 NHL season tonight with many projections placing them in the mushy middle of the league. It’s a spot that the team is very familiar with, falling just short of the playoffs in each of the past two seasons.

A bevy of offseason additions, including the signing of Teddy Blueger, Carson Soucy, and Ian Cole, were made to add depth to a roster desperately needing it. With just a few days until puck drop, management continues to fiddle with the roster, adding forward Sam Lafferty via a trade from the Toronto Maple Leafs.

All of this has left a lot of uncertainty in how the team will perform in a strong Pacific Division. Will they finally make the jump to playoff contender or will it be another year where the golf clubs are dusted off in May?

Five different mathematical models from around the hockey world are attempting to answer that exact question. From social media accounts to sportsbooks, here are where the Canucks are projected to finish by five of the most popular analytics models on the internet.

1. Dom Luszczyszyn: Canucks are a playoff team (94 points)

2023-24 NHL standings projections, playoff chances and Stanley Cup odds

Updated daily at @TheAthleticNHL https://t.co/kMAQA4fGMv pic.twitter.com/ckJ1sJEYpy

— dom 📈 (@domluszczyszyn) October 10, 2023

The most optimistic of all the projections put forward here comes from Dom Luszczyszyn’s model for The Athletic. He has given the Canucks a 60% chance of making the playoffs and a final points projection of 94.

If this prediction were to come true it would mark an increase of 11 points on the team’s finish last season. Notably, this is the only projection that gives a greater than 50% chance of making the playoffs.

Before fans get giddy over the team’s position here, it should be noted that the four Pacific Division teams rank ahead of the Canucks including the Edmonton Oilers, Vegas Golden Knights, Calgary Flames, and Los Angeles Kings.

2. JFreshHockey: Canucks just miss the playoffs (93 points)

whatever thing is busted what can i say no further questions pic.twitter.com/LFMboWbeSD

— JFresh (@JFreshHockey) October 10, 2023

@JFreshHockey is one of the most popular Hockey X accounts with over 100,000 followers. He projects the Canucks to finish with 93 points, finishing three points behind the Seattle Kraken, narrowly missing the playoffs.

This would leave them just barely on the outside looking in on the postseason picture, a familiar spot for the Canucks in recent history.

This projection notably has the Canucks finishing above the Kings, something that not many people are expecting to happen.

3. DraftKings: Oddsmakers say no (90.5 points)

The people with the most to lose when it comes to NHL projections have set the Canucks season point total line at 90.5.

The implied probability in the betting line for the team to make the playoffs suggests the DraftKings sportsbook doesn’t see it happening this season.

The betting line for the Canucks to make the playoffs gives them an implied probability of 45.5%.

4. MoneyPuck: Outside looking in (90.3 points)

Hockey is back! Oilers and Canes start off with the best chances. https://t.co/RbnckCLHNP pic.twitter.com/fnnsPSmMox

— MoneyPuck.com (@MoneyPuckdotcom) October 7, 2023

Hockey analytics website MoneyPuck projects the Canucks to finish just outside the playoffs with 90.3 points.

There are five Pacific Division teams projected to finish higher than the Canucks including the Oilers, Golden Knights, Kings, Flames, and Kraken.

While MoneyPuck gives the Canucks a 47.7% chance of making the playoffs, they also give the Canucks a 2.6% chance of ending up with the first overall draft pick, just slightly higher than the 2% chance they have to win the Stanley Cup.

5. Evolving Hockey: Not ideal (89.2 points)

# – '23-24 NHL Team Projections – #

Our preview for the upcoming season is now up! We covered how the model works, changes within each division, and notable teams heading into the season. Like Dune, there's some spice involved. https://t.co/lce4buVEMx pic.twitter.com/PvAjDnXXhZ

— Evolving-Hockey (@EvolvingHockey) October 9, 2023

Last but not least, Evolving Hockey is the most bearish of all the projections presented. They’ve given the Canucks just a 36.9% chance of making the playoffs and are the only outlet to project them for fewer than 90 points.

The 36.9% chance to make the playoffs is almost a full 10% less than any other model on this list.

This point total would still mark an improvement on last season for the Canucks, albeit a much smaller one than everyone in the organization is hoping for.