How each Raptors player ranks league-wide according to analytics
The Toronto Raptors’ analytics from this past season look a little wonky.
With injuries, COVID-19 outbreaks, and a roster figuring things out with the emergence of Scottie Barnes and the departure of Kyle Lowry, the only constant this year for the Raptors was that you could always expect a little chaos.
Analytics don’t offer a perfect picture of what happens in a basketball game. As Kevin Durant once eloquently stated, “Who the f**k wants to look at graphs when having a hoop convo?”
But they do at least offer a little insight and a quick way to compare players across the league, which is what we’re going to do here.
The criteria
For the stat we’re using, it’s Win Shares/48 minutes. A win share essentially estimates how many extra wins you give your team each season, with the /48 accounting to create an even playing field for those players with less playing time per game. It’s not a perfect stat — none are — but it gives us a bit of a picture as to how much each player contributed when they were on the court for Toronto this past season.
Despite all the absences on their roster, Raptors coach Nick Nurse ran a pretty tight rotation. Anyone who played over 900 minutes qualifies for this leaderboard (Khem Birch was the lowest Raptor that made the cut, with 991).
311 players make it onto this list, so a little over ten per team. Eight players played over 900 minutes with the Raptors this season, while Thad Young also qualified through his time with San Antonio earlier in the season. Each of them started at least
Interestingly, 310th and 311th were Cade Cunningham (who some favoured over Barnes for Rookie of the Year) and Jalen Suggs (who many favoured over Barnes in the draft last year).
Let’s take a look at the analytics (via Basketball-Reference), and see where the Raptors ended up league-wide.
26. Chris Boucher
Win Shares/48: .181
Making the case that Chris Boucher is the best player on the Toronto Raptors would probably get you laughed out of any argument, but he’s long been an analytics darling. He also led Raptors regulars in WS/48 in both 2019-20 and 2020-21. And hey, he doesn’t have the two worst ‘bookends’ (the players directly above and below him in league rankings), having about the same impact this past season as Steph Curry. He is set to be a free agent this summer, with the Raptors having a tough choice to make about his future.
Bookended by: Bam Adebayo, Steph Curry
51. Pascal Siakam
Win Shares/48: .149
Pascal Siakam was both the Raptors’ most consistent and most accomplished player this past season, even after missing the first ten games while recovering from surgery. Siakam cracked the NBA’s All-NBA third team and kept up his strong pace while also putting up the 21st most minutes in the league. His analytics in this case might not have him as the Raptors’ leader, but he led the team in total Win Shares as well as VORP (Value Above Replacement Player).
Bookended by: John Konchar, Dejounte Murray
79. Fred VanVleet
Win Shares/48: .128
Fred VanVleet cracked his first career all-star game this past season but admittedly struggled with a series of injuries during the latter half of the season. Still, it was a career year for VanVleet, who took on new roles on offence and defence with Kyle Lowry departing.
Bookended by: Mike Conley, Bruce Brown
91. Thad Young
Win Shares/48:Â .123
Thad Young came over at the trade deadline in exchange for Goran Dragic and was a welcome addition to a youthful roster. His future in the NBA is a little unclear, but the 34-year-old performed well when called up throughout the season.
Bookended by: Darius Garland, Nicolas Batum
97. Scottie Barnes
Win Shares/48: .122
In the 2022 NBA Rookie of the Year, Scottie Barnes did everything he was asked and then some during his first campaign. There were a few growing pains that prevented him from really putting up other-worldly analytics, but it was still a very strong campaign from the 20-year-old.
Bookended by: Dorian Finney-Smith, Kyle Anderson
115. Khem Birch
Win Shares/48: .116
Khem Birch started 28 games this season for the Raptors, though he was often more comparable to a baseball “opener” than a true starting role. Often, he’d play the first few minutes of a game to help Precious Achiuwa and/or Chris Boucher stay out of foul trouble, before playing most of the rest of the game with the second unit.
His raw totals (4.5 points and 4.3 rebounds per game) don’t look all that impressive on paper, but he’s a great example of a player who might be identified via analytics when their traditional stats don’t pop.
Bookended by: Jose Alvarado, Amir Coffey. (Also two spots ahead of 2022 All-Star Lamelo Ball)
149. Gary Trent Jr.
Win Shares/48: .103
Gary Trent Jr. had stretches of looking like he was the best player in the NBA, including a run of five straight 30-point games in January. He made strides on both ends of the floor, putting up career highs in points, assists, and steals. League-wide though, he’s about bang-average, ranking right around the median position of 156.
Bookended by: Brandon Ingram, Grayson Allen
154. OG Anunoby
Win Shares/48: .101
OG Anunoby had an up-and-down year, suiting up in just 48 games for the Raptors. He racked up career highs in a number of categories, but it felt at times he was just not quite clicking up to his potential. Anunoby found himself in trade rumours again this week, though Barnes was quick to laugh them off as unserious.
Bookended by: Royce O’Neal, Cody Martin
237. Precious Achiuwa
Win Shares/48: .062
Precious Achiuwa might be the best example of a player you can throw out the analytics on. Following his appearance at the NBA’s Rising Stars Challenge in February, Achiuwa found a new burst in the second half of the season and became a key rotation piece come playoff time. If there was any player you could easily bet on to improve their overall numbers next season, Achiuwa is as safe a bet as you’ll find in the league.
Bookended by: Jeremy Lamb, Wesley Matthews