"Future uncertain" as Ontario COVID-19 cases rise steadily

The Ontario COVID-19 Science Advisory Table released new modelling for the fall and winter months, reporting that the future of COVID-19 in the province is “uncertain.”

The new modelling shows that COVID-19 cases are rising in almost all of the public health units in the province. Testing rates have remained flat, which the Science Table says indicates a significant rise in the spread of COVID-19.

1/7 We released new COVID-19 modelling for Ontario today. Cases are rising again; pausing re-opening is the right move. This thread takes you through our data. #COVID19ON https://t.co/f2089LE1PT

— COVIDScienceOntario (@COVIDSciOntario) November 12, 2021

The modelling suggests that data predictions released last month are no longer likely. And that because the rise in cases is recent, it is hard to predict what cases could be like in the coming months.

Ontario COVID-19 Science Advisory Table

The new data shows cases have increased dramatically since capacity limits were lifted on October 25, indicating that this rise will likely continue.

“There’s no question that the months ahead will require continued vigilance, and the modelling rightly points out that some jurisdictions are struggling as they continue to face the fourth wave of COVID-19. That’s why Ontario continues to take a different approach by maintaining strong public health measures such as indoor masking and proof of vaccination requirements to access higher-risk settings,” a spokesperson with the Ministry of Health said in a statement.

The spokesperson added that the ministry always anticipated a rise in cases as capacity limits lifted, restrictions eased, and colder weather moved people indoors.

Hospitalizations and ICU admissions remain stable for now, but the Science Table predicts that ICU admissions will rise.

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Compared to European data, the new modelling depicts the risks of increased cases in hospitals. European countries lifted restrictions before Ontario and now provide a good idea of what could happen in the province.

Ontario COVID-19 Science Advisory Table

The data continues to show that COVID-19 impacts low-income Ontarians more, with increased infection rates and mortality. According to the modelling, this is due to higher exposure rates and reduced access to treatment, hospitals, and vaccinations.

Ontario COVID-19 Science Advisory Table

The Ontario COVID-19 Science Advisory Table continues to advise people to be immunized as soon as possible and that vaccinations are the best defence against COVID-19 infection.