Why Leafs should consider load-management with Morgan Rielly
Morgan Rielly has never been a more important player for the Toronto Maple Leafs.
Playing just under 25 minutes per game, Rielly has the highest usage rate of his career as the Maple Leafs have withstood injuries to Jake Muzzin, Mark Giordano, Timothy Liljegren, and John Kllingberg during the first third of the season.
He should finish the season as a down-ballot Norris Trophy candidate. He may win the Lady Byng as well, given he hasn’t taken a penalty all season.
Rielly took over as the Leafs’ power-play quarterback when it became clear that Klingberg was incapable of running the top unit and has taken on a larger offensive role since the final week of October, entering the rush without sacrificing defensive positioning.
He’s pacing towards a 62-point season over the course of 82 games, with points in four of his last five games.
Rielly is also doing all the small things well, playing with a cerebral calm and looking for the simple play to facilitate zone exits rather effortlessly.
MORGAN RIELLY 🚨
Tavares gets the assist on the tying goal pic.twitter.com/Bi5xF0Jd10
— Omar (@TicTacTOmar) December 12, 2023
Rielly scored the game-tying goal against the New York Islanders on December 11 and it’s a result of the direct mandate he must’ve received to pinch aggressively, especially when risk mitigation is no longer a factor. More simply, he knows to act as a fourth forward while trailing in the dying seconds of a game.
AUSTON MATTHEWS 🚨
tie game! What a play! pic.twitter.com/km2jpgTEya
— Omar (@TicTacTOmar) December 20, 2023
Rielly’s skating and playmaking have been hallmarks of his offensive profile and he’s never been better. During Auston Matthews’ first of two goals Tuesday against the New York Rangers, Rielly flew into the offensive third, cuts to the outside, then eventually used inside leverage against former Norris Trophy winner Adam Fox to find Matthews in prime position off the rush.
Morgan Rielly to the rescue pic.twitter.com/q823Jc08FJ
— Omar (@TicTacTOmar) November 29, 2023
Rielly’s excellent season to date hasn’t always been about his tremendous offensive impact, although he can flip a switch from defensive stalwart to long-range playmaker in a heartbeat. Look no further than his shot-block against the Minnesota Wild on November 19 that directly led to William Nylander’s sensational overtime winner.
Morgan Rielly’s block pic.twitter.com/VI6o7J5GBZ
— Omar (@TicTacTOmar) November 19, 2023
He routinely breaks up 2-on-1 chances and his active stick, improved spatial sense, and a rash of injuries have forced Rielly to become the Maple Leafs’ most impactful defender as well.
Rielly defends the two-on-one pic.twitter.com/8MTkrk36Cm
— Omar (@TicTacTOmar) December 20, 2023
Is there a concern about diminishing returns? You could read into this as paranoid framing but there’s evidence to suggest that Rielly’s impact — particularly on the defensive side — is waning due to his increasingly high-volume usage throughout the year.
Rielly and T.J. Brodie played 390:07 at 5-on-5, the 15th-most used pairing in the NHL via Natural Stat Trick, on the ice for 21 goals for, 17 against. To illustrate the depth to which the Leafs have relied on Rielly, and to a lesser degree, Brodie, Toronto’s second most-used pairing of Mark Giordano and Jake McCabe have played 88:06 in 14 games together — and Giordano has been out of the lineup with a broken finger since November 30.
“I think it helps,” Rielly said when I asked him about the continuity with Brodie last month. “We’re all comfortable playing with each other. We work on that stuff during practice, mixing up pairs and whatnot. The expectation is there won’t be any issues with guys playing on their off sides or anything like that, so I think we’ll be well-prepared.”
With an uptick in minutes and responsibility, Rielly’s underlying numbers are beginning to slide. Toronto controls just under 47% of the expected goals at 5-on-5 when he’s on the ice and Rielly ranks 467th out of 562 skaters in expected goals-against per 60, a reliable yet imperfect metric to assess individual defensive impact.
Though there’s little to indicate that Rielly has been subject to bad luck, it does suggest that the Maple Leafs may be forced to load-manage the 29-year-old despite his Herculean work in all facets of the game, especially if they separate from the pack in the Atlantic Division.
Rielly has been tremendous for the Maple Leafs and is a central reason why the team has not only remained afloat but competitive during a string of injuries to the blue line. He’s been tremendous offensively, he hasn’t taken a penalty, his offensive impact remains stellar with high usage but can he maintain his defensive form with this type of volume? It may be a paranoid framework but the Maple Leafs may be wise to exercise caution to avoid diminishing returns.
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