This could be the year the Leafs finally win the Atlantic Division

It’s no secret the Toronto Maple Leafs haven’t exactly played their best hockey this season.

Through 27 games, Toronto’s won just eight of them in regulation, a talking point that’s carried their way throughout the season.

The team’s offseason additions have mostly been disappointing: Ryan Reaves has been mostly unplayable, John Klingberg is out for the year, Max Domi has just one goal, and Tyler Bertuzzi’s on pace for just 27 points over 82 games. And yet, the team somehow has a chance of doing something they’ve never done before: win the Atlantic Division.

While everyone knows about Toronto not having won the Stanley Cup since 1967, much fewer people find their barbs at the team’s ineptitude at winning whatever division they’ve been in throughout much of their history.

The Leafs won the All-Canadian North Division back in 2021, but celebrating that at all seemed pretty short-lived after the Montreal Canadiens upset them out of the playoffs in seven games.

When it comes to divisions they’ve spent more than one year in, Toronto hasn’t actually won a division title since 1999-2000, when they topped the old five-team Northeast Division. Before that, the team hadn’t won a divisional title since 1938. Sure, there was a stretch from 1938-1967 when the NHL didn’t operate with divisions, but they still took 33 years after that to win their next one.

Tampa, Boston, Florida, and Toronto have occupied the top four spots in four of the last five seasons under the Atlantic Division, with Montreal sneaking in ahead of Florida in 2018-19 and the other three teams remaining the same.

It’s been described as the most difficult division in hockey to win with good reason: Boston, Tampa, and Toronto rank first, second, and fifth leaguewide when it comes to regular season wins over the last five years.

But 2023-24 might finally be the year Toronto gets an Atlantic Division crown to call their own, something they’ve never done before.

Currently, the Leafs sit just four points off division-leading Boston, with each team having played 27 games so far.

Here’s how the standings shake out entering Friday’s games:

A few quick reasons why it could be possible for the Leafs to win the Atlantic this year over the four other contenders:

• In regulation and overtime last year, the Bruins only lost 17 games across 82 regular season contests en route to the best NHL regular season in modern history. Through 27 this year, they’ve already lost nine.
• Florida’s 85 goals scored this year rank 21st in the league. While they’ve been dominant defensively — their 76 goals against are eighth-best in the NHL — offence has been hard to come by for the Panthers.
• Despite a strong start to the year, Detroit is still in pursuit of their first playoff berth since 2016. We’ve yet to see them sustain success over 82 games in seven seasons, so it’s natural to remain a little skeptical.
• Sitting fifth in the division right now, Tampa Bay appears to actually be hitting their most serious struggles after nine playoff appearances (and two Stanley Cups) in 10 years. With a -7 goal differential partially attributed to the months-long Andrei Vasilevskiy absence to start the season, they’ll need a serious swing over the rest of the year to vault into first place from fifth.

Meanwhile, Montreal, Buffalo, and Ottawa are likely already out of the race for the division crown, as you generally don’t see teams come back from losing records midway through the year to suddenly become a division leader.

In any case, while it’s not the prize they’re looking for, this year could finally line up as one for Toronto to win the Atlantic for the first time.

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