What the Leafs could offer the Canucks in a trade for Bo Horvat
The Bo Horvat era, ultimately, seems destined to end in failure for the Vancouver Canucks.
That’s not to say Horvat’s play or leadership has been a failure — in fact, quite the opposite.
Since Horvat was taken ninth overall in the 2013 draft by Vancouver, his marks of 190 goals, 395 points, and 600 games played are all higher than any other Canucks player in that timeframe.
He’s done just about everything asked of the organization, though assuming his demands back at them are as simple as “create a consistent playoff team,” they haven’t exactly been met.
But with news of the Canucks reportedly focused on the trade market for Horvat, let us venture into the wacky and weird world of trade proposals.
The Canucks’ biggest issue, as it usually is with most of their trades in recent memory, is leverage, or lack thereof.
Sure, Horvat is having a career season with 20 goals potted already, a 58-goal pace over an 82-game span.
But he’s on an expiring contract and set for a big payday, with no guarantee that his new team will have the room for his next big deal.
It’s easiest to view Horvat’s value as it is on paper: a rental, with about two-thirds of a season and a playoff run what a team would be interested in trading for.
Horvat’s trade value isn’t anywhere close to where it could be, but that doesn’t mean he’ll hit the market for peanuts, either.
If it really is time for Horvat to go, well, the Toronto Maple Leafs could make a feasible dance partner based on each team’s wants and needs.
Toronto’s normally been viewed as a team with a surplus of offence and a dearth of defence, but that hasn’t quite been the case this year. In fact, they rank second league-wide in the fewest goals allowed, while sitting just 11th in offence.
Sure, they might not need a player like Horvat, but he’d certainly be a welcome addition to slot throughout their forward group.
Toronto owns each of their next first three first-round picks, as well as a 2024 second and three third-round picks spread out through the next three drafts. As rentals go, there should be enough secondary pieces for Toronto to add as necessary until Vancouver could say yes.
A note: these aren’t meant to be suggestions of the smartest move for Vancouver (or Toronto), but merely a look at three different ways the trade could go if the two teams sit down at the negotiation table.
1. The young defenceman route
Toronto’s got a pair of two defenders that should interest the Canucks (or any team, really), in Timothy Liljegren and Rasmus Sandin.
Both of them are former first-round picks, who have seen their responsibility and workload increase this season with Toronto suffering a slew of veteran injuries on the backend.
Toronto’s willingness to part with one player or the other would likely come down to who the organization views higher. Both players are playing within a minute of each other a night (18:56 for Liljegren compared to 18:16 for Sandin), though Sandin’s suited up for all 30 games compared to just 19 for Liljegren.
Sandin may have been a trade candidate during his contract standoff this past summer, but he opted to return on a two-year deal worth $1.4 million each season, the same deal Liljegren signed earlier this summer.
Vancouver could obviously fit either of those contracts on the books moving forward for this year and next, before having to commit to an extension come 2024.
It’s a big “what-if,” sure, but adding Sandin or Liljegren would be a first step in revamping Vancouver’s aging d-corps.
2. The established Leafs star route
If one thing is clear, the Leafs wouldn’t have much reason to part ways with anyone of their top four forwards in Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, John Tavares, and William Nylander for Horvat.
But what if there was still an outside shot at trading Horvat for a Leafs star?
Enter Morgan Rielly, who Toronto signed to an eight-year $60 million megadeal last summer to be their No. 1 defenceman.
Like Horvat, Rielly has been a centrepiece of his roster since his early years, after being taken fourth overall at the 2012 draft.
He finished 11th in Norris voting last season after putting up 68 points in 82 games while finishing fifth in 2018-19.
He does carry the pesky no-move clause that likely kills this trade before it’s even hit the table, but it’s not like players haven’t waived those before for the right fit.
Rielly, a West Vancouver native and frequent summertime visitor to his home province, has surely at least thought about what it’d be like to play for his hometown team after a decade in Toronto.
He’s been injured since November 21, but the Leafs have gone 9-0-1 in his absence. If Toronto’s been missing him, the results surely haven’t shown it.
Would a Horvat for Rielly move help vault the Canucks to becoming a better team?
It might not.
Rielly is a year older than Horvat, on a potentially damaging contract, and has typically bled shots defensively at one of the higher rates in the league amongst high-usage defencemen.
But would it add a player with star potential extended on a long-term deal?
Most definitely.
Rielly fills the “guy you’ve heard of” stereotype for the more casual fans looking for a big name coming back in the Horvat deal while giving the Canucks some semblance of stability on their backend.
3. The nuclear route for the Canucks
What if the Canucks traded their captain for, well, no one that’d be around next year?
Horvat’s cap hit is small enough that it’s entirely possible the Canucks could eat up to 50% of it for the remainder of the season and not think twice about it.
A Horvat trade would (or at least should) be made with the future in mind, which is why it’s possible Vancouver simply trades them for a guy or two to fill out a roster spot… and a boatload of draft picks (and possibly a prospect or two).
Toronto’s prospect cupboard isn’t exactly ripe with options: there are names like Matthew Knies, Topi Niemala, and Nick Robertson in the system, but few of them appear quite on the trajectory to make the impact Horvat’s had in Vancouver. In Vancouver’s case, if it’s chasing non-roster players, picks over prospects is probably the wisest way to go when it comes to the Leafs.
If it’s going that route (or even if they’re not), Toronto would likely also be interested in attaching a “cap dump” or two of its own.
Two particular players come to mind: defenceman Justin Holl, forward Alex Kerfoot, or both.
Holl carries a cap hit of $2 million, while Kerfoot comes in at $3.5 million. Both are much-maligned in the Toronto market.
Kerfoot has just four goals and ten assists in 30 games this year, while Holl, who’s never been an offensive dynamo either, has just one goal and two assists in 30 games of his own.
Holl and/or Kerfoot wouldn’t make sense in the Canucks’ long-term plans, but they could easily fill a roster spot throughout the rest of the season while making the money going the other way work for Toronto.
It’s probably not happening. But it’s not impossible… just as long as Toronto is liberal with its draft offerings for the next several seasons.
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