After finishing towards the bottom of the standings for the third consecutive year, the Montreal Canadiens are undoubtedly excited about tonight’s NHL Draft Lottery.
And by the looks of things, they have good reason to be, with the Canadiens holding the fifth-best odds (8.5%) of winning the first overall selection in the draw.
With that being said, fans should prepare for some degree of disappointment since Montreal actually has a higher likelihood of dropping by a spot or two than rising to somewhere in the top three.
Tankathon
As indicated by Tankathon’s odds chart, the Canadiens’ three most likely picks are fifth (24.5.% chance), sixth (44% chance), and seventh (17.2% chance) overall. Essentially, despite finishing fifth-last in the standings in 2023-24, there is a 61.2% chance that they fall in the lottery, ending up with a lower draft pick than fifth overall.
For context, when Montreal ended up with the fifth overall pick last spring, they also concluded their season in 28th place, heading into the draw with the exact same odds of securing the first overall pick.
Alternatively, the Habs currently hold a cumulative 17.4% chance of picking somewhere in the top three. If they do rise, they will most likely end up with the second overall pick (8.6% chance).
Meanwhile, the San Jose Sharks are lottery favourites, with a 25.5% chance of winning the top selection after logging the NHL’s worst record (19-53-9) this year. The Chicago Blackhawks are one spot behind, with a 13.5% chance of winning the draw for the second time in 12 months.
As hockey fans saw with No. 1 pick Connor Bedard last year, this year’s draft class features another bona fide top prospect in Boston University forward Macklin Celebrini.
The NHL Draft Lottery will be broadcast live in Canada on Sportsnet East, Ontario, Pacific, and West, and TVA Sports at 6:30 pm ET/3:30 pm PT ahead of Game 2 between the New York Rangers and Carolina Hurricanes.
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