Rare Oilers-Flames trade involving Markstrom could make sense
The Edmonton Oilers have a goaltending problem and the answer they are looking for may be just a mere three hours south of Rogers Place.
The Calgary Flames seem like the team that could be on the verge of a rebuild, and it might be wise of the Oilers to get in on the ground floor.
Much of the attention has been on the Flames’ pending UFAs like defencemen Noah Hanifin, Chris Tanev, and Nikita Zadorov but new reports this week have also called into question players like Nazem Kadri, who have plenty of terms left on their contracts but might not want to stick around for a full-blown rebuild.
The Oilers will almost certainly have interest in some of those UFA defencemen, but one player that could shake loose from a potential Flames rebuild is goaltender Jacob Markstrom.
Though he is the team’s starting goalie, would the Flames really want to hold onto a $6 million goaltender with value while they potentially start to tear down for a retool? It would make more sense to capitalize on a trade and get more assets rather than hold onto him as the team loses and Markstrom potentially drops in trade value.
Additionally, it isn’t like the Flames don’t already have an NHL goalie waiting in the wings. Top prospect Dustin Wolf has been among the very best goaltenders in the AHL over the last few seasons and desperately needs to start getting regular time in the NHL. Moving Markstrom would not only net some fairly valuable assets, but also pave the way for Calgary’s goalie of the future.
Markstrom still has two more seasons on a contract that carries a $6 million cap hit. He struggled in Calgary last season but seems to be having a bit of a bounce-back season in the Flames crease this year.
His underlying stats this season don’t look pretty with a 3-6-1 record and a .905 save percentage, but he ranks second in the league in goals saved above expected (xGSA) at +10.21. This suggests that those poor surface-level stats may be more of an indication of how bad the team around him is performing.
NHL Goals Saved Above Expected leaders, Nov 15th:
#1 Thatcher Demko #Canucks – +13.47
#2 Jacob Markstrom #Flames – +10.21
#3 Jeremy Swayman #NHLBruins – +10.04
#4 Jordan Binnington #STLBlues – +9.18
#5 Adin Hill #VegasBorn – +8.57
#6 John Gibson #FlyTogether – +8.19
#7 Semyon… pic.twitter.com/RUOr1cwP3C— Nathan "Grav" (@NathanGraviteh) November 15, 2023
If the Flames decided that they would put Markstrom on the trade block, why would they trade him to the Oilers? Well, there might not be a team more willing to pay a premium on a goaltender than Edmonton right now. Though the team is finally stringing together wins, the desperation to find a consistent goaltender who can help them achieve their Stanley Cup aspirations is probably still high.
Calgary might be in a position to gather more than they would in a trade with Edmonton than any other NHL team.
What would the Oilers have to give up to both get the Flames to accept trading their starting goalie to their provincial rival and make it work from a cap perspective?
First off, the Oilers would certainly need to find a way to offload Jack Campbell’s $5 million cap hit. The Flames could be the team to take Campbell. If they are truly wanting to go the route of tearing everything down, they won’t need to worry about having rock-solid goaltending for at least the next three years.
Having a veteran like Campbell backing up Wolf isn’t a reprehensible concept, but it would require a fair bit of selling on the Oilers’ part.
If the Oilers want to offload the last three seasons of Campbell’s contract to the Flames, they have to be prepared to pay a premium.
An obvious starting point for any trade would be to include Edmonton’s 2024 first-round pick. Considering Edmonton is currently still in the bottom half of the standings, there will most likely have to be a bit of lottery protection on the pick. Nonetheless, it should be a pick that ensures Calgary has a legitimate chance at drafting Tij Iginla in the first round.
From there, the Oilers might have to part with 2019 first-rounder Philip Broberg. The lanky Swedish defenceman has not been able to stick on the Oilers’ main roster and could maybe find a consistent spot on the Flames after the dust settles with some of the team’s UFA defencemen.
This might still not be enough for the Flames to accept the deal. A younger player who can play in the NHL, possibly Ryan McLeod or Warren Foegele, could be included to sweeten the pot for the Flames. Another first-round pick could also be on the table, though I’m sure Edmonton would want another piece back if that were the case. Perhaps adding Chris Tanev into the deal could make sense in addressing two problems at once.
These teams are bitter rivals in just about everything they do, but the stars are aligning to have them do something that may be in both teams’ best interests.
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