Oilers lead the NHL in this important advanced stat
The month of December has been a bit strange for the Edmonton Oilers.
For the first half, everything was going right. The team was on an eight-game winning streak and well on their way to getting back into the NHL playoff picture. Then came the Tampa Bay Lightning and Florida Panthers, who handed the team two straight losses and have changed the narrative around the team.
Edmonton’s record is 13-14-1, and the Oilers are still sitting five points behind the Arizona Coyotes for the final Western Conference playoff spot. This has not been the type of season that the team was supposed to have.
Despite disappointing results so far, the Oilers are seemingly doing just fine according to at least one important advanced stat. Edmonton leads the entire league in expected goals-for (xGF), a statistic that looks at a team’s overall shot quality and the probability that those shots turn into goals.
Analytics website Natural Stat Trick has the Oilers’ xGF at 107.52, which tops the league and is ahead of the second-place Florida Panthers, whose xGF sits at 105.22.
This tells us that the Oilers are still generating chances at an elite level and getting very good opportunities against opposing goalies. This shouldn’t be too much of a surprise considering the Oilers have some of the most gifted offensive players in the league, with all of Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, Zach Hyman, and, now, Evan Bouchard being players in the NHL’s scoring race.
So, what gives? If the Oilers are the best team in the league in getting quality chances on net, why are they so far down in the standings? Well, there are a couple of other stats that help put Edmonton’s lacklustre record into perspective.
Just because the team is generating a lot of good chances doesn’t mean the majority of those chances are ending up as goals. The Oilers have had a problem finishing plays this season and only have 96 goals all season, which is tied for 12th in the league.
Again, this doesn’t sound like a bad thing. Sure, the Oilers could be higher up considering their high xGF, but being in the top half of the league in team scoring should certainly have them in a playoff spot. Usually, that would be a pretty good argument, but the problem lies in Edmonton’s team save percentage.
Through 28 games, the Oilers’ team save percentage is second-last in the league at .878, just above the last-place Carolina Hurricanes, whose goaltenders have only managed a .873 save percentage.
This has cancelled out Edmonton’s deadly offence this season and has dug them a hole that even an eight-game winning streak is just barely getting them out of.
Oilers fans are probably tired of hearing it by now, but the team is in desperate need of some solid goaltending. Stuart Skinner has shown that he can do that at times, but he lacks a consistent running mate to help him out.
It’s not going to be Jack Campbell, and right now, it doesn’t appear Calvin Pickard is the guy, either. If the Oilers are serious about making the playoffs, an external move for a goaltender needs to be their top priority.