Oilers favoured to win Stanley Cup by analytics model
The Edmonton Oilers will be playing in the Stanley Cup Final later this week and analytics have them as the slight favourite to win it all over the Florida Panthers.
It will be the first time in 18 years that Oilers fans will be able to watch their team this late into the season, and excitement is through the roof in the Alberta capital. The only thing better would be bringing the Cup back to the city to end a 31-year drought for Canadian franchises.
The Panthers will be the toughest challenge yet for this Oilers team, but at least one prominent analytics model has given them an edge to reach the top of the hockey world.
Oilers slight favourites to win Stanley Cup. https://t.co/RbnckCMfDn pic.twitter.com/4JSDmaOhlh
— MoneyPuck.com (@MoneyPuckdotcom) June 3, 2024
A closer look at Money Puck’s model reveals that the most likely outcome for this Final is the Oilers winning the Stanley Cup in six games, giving that an 18.3% chance. The Panthers’ best chance comes with the series going to seven games, with the model giving Florida a 16.7% chance of winning their first cup in franchise history if things go the distance.
Other models are bullish on picking a favourite at all. The Athletic’s Dom Luszczyszyn has been running a playoff model all postseason long and it has the Oilers and Panthers deadlocked at equal odds of winning the cup.Ā
2024 NHL playoff preview: Panthers vs. Oilers
with @seangentille and @hayyyshayyyThe NHL saved the best for last, a true toss-up between arguably the top teams in the East and West.https://t.co/cbCt5prsv5 pic.twitter.com/ax7oZiLU7G
ā dom š (@domluszczyszyn) June 4, 2024
This marks the first time during the entire playoffs that the Oilers haven’t been favoured to win a series by at least five percentage points in each of Money Puck and Luszczyszyn’s models. Edmonton was the heavy favourite against both the LA Kings and Vancouver Canucks. Their Western Conference Final series against the Dallas Stars was closer in analytical odds but the Oilers still held a decent edge.
This certainly reflects the reality of this year’s Stanley Cup Final. The Panthers came out victorious in both regular season meetings between these two teams this year and there is no doubt that they are one of the top teams in the entire league. Neither of these clubs holds the title of an underdog.
It will be as evenly matched as the Stanley Cup Final has been in recent memory and it all gets going in Florida on Saturday night.