Analytics are giving Oilers best odds to win Stanley Cup
The Edmonton Oilers are headed to the Western Conference Finals for the second time in three seasons and two analytics models like their chances at going all the way.
The general reaction to the team’s matchup against the Dallas Stars seemed to skew in favour of the Stars, with their depth and goaltending among the reasons they could prevail over the Oilers. Yet, the numbers from two prominent analytical models seem to paint a different picture.
Both The Athletic’s Dom Luszczyszyn and MoneyPuck.com not only have the Oilers as slight favourites to beat the Stars in the Western Conference Finals but also give McDavid and company the best odds of winning the Stanley Cup.
2024 Stanley Cup chances going into Round 3https://t.co/jo5ragKCEu pic.twitter.com/uy0YdUxq2I
— dom š (@domluszczyszyn) May 21, 2024
The Oilers have been something of an analytical darling all postseason long. Numbers have liked the team in all three of their playoff series, with the odds being weighed heavily in their favour against both the LA Kings and the Vancouver Canucks.
Luszczyszyn’s model gives Edmonton a slight 53% edge to knock off the Stars, while Dallas is not far behind at 47%. In terms of winning the Stanley Cup, his model gives the Oilers a 32% chance, while the Florida Panthers are hot on their heels at 31%.
Over on Moneypuck, the numbers read similarly. The analytics website is giving Edmonton better odds than Luszczyszyn, with a 57% chance that the Oilers get past the Stars and a 32.5% chance at lifting the cup.
Down to four. Oilers and Rangers favourites in conference finals. https://t.co/RbnckCLHNP pic.twitter.com/jx7aMqlPNv
— MoneyPuck.com (@MoneyPuckdotcom) May 21, 2024
The Oilers played the Stars three times during the regular season and only managed to win one of those games. Here is how those games played out:
Nov. 2: 4-3 Stars
Feb. 17: 4-3 OT Oilers
Apr. 3: 5-0 Stars
The only truly dominant game by either team came near the end of the season when the Stars throttled the Oilers in their final matchup in Dallas. Yet, as the Oilers proved against the Canucks, the regular season means next to nothing when it comes to the Stanley Cup Playoffs.
We’ll see if the numbers end up accurately predicting this one when Edmonton heads to Texas for Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals on Thursday night.
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