How much money will McDavid make on his next Edmonton Oilers contract?
Connor McDavid is primed to make history for the Edmonton Oilers, and for once, it won’t be on the ice.
With a single stroke of a pen, McDavid will likely shatter the NHL record for the highest AAV on a single contract. The current record is being held by teammate Leon Draisaitl, who signed an eight-year contract with an AAV of $14.5 million last summer.
It’s expected that the Oilers captain will not only surpass that mark, but that he will shatter it. With the NHL cap projected to soar to $95.5 million this season, all the way up to $113.5 million in 2027-28, that means player salaries are about to see a substantial increase.
McDavid, being the NHL’s best player, will be expected to lead that charge on the player’s front, which means fans should be prepared to see a higher-than-usual number.
As it stands, McDavid carries a cap hit of $12.5 million in the last year of an eight-year deal signed back in the summer of 2017. When that was signed, it was the most expensive in the league, but multiple players have since passed that mark, leaving the Oilers superstar ranked as the fourth-highest paid player right now, behind Draisaitl, Nathan MacKinnon, and Auston Matthews.
Once he signs on the dotted line, he will be back at the top of the list, and it probably won’t be close. So, what will that number look like?
The absolute minimum AAV on McDavid’s next deal with the Oilers will probably be at $15 million, just $500,000 more than Draisaitl’s. There is no way that Edmonton will be able to get a deal lower than that, and they’d honestly be lucky to get McDavid that cheap.
The Athletic’s Dom Luszczyszyn runs a contract projection model that currently gives McDavid a market value of an astounding $19.5 million per year, which would put him just $500,000 shy of being the league’s first $20 million player.
He would surpass Draisaitl as the highest-paid NHLer by $5 million, and give McDavid a whopping $7 million raise from his previous deal.
https://t.co/Mc8Fnlza67 pic.twitter.com/HBP9gnevh8
— dom š (@domluszczyszyn) July 30, 2025
AFP Analytics also projected McDavid’s next deal, but their number came in a bit lower at $16.35 million.
Those, however, are analytical projections. Although the Oilers aren’t expected to have much leverage in contract negotiations, with McDavid holding all the cards, there will likely be some aspect of communication that differs from those projections.
NHL insider Frank Seravalli has previously reported that the ballpark number for this contract is likely between $16 million and $17.5 million. This would make sense, as a $17.5 million AAV would represent a $5 million raise from McDavid’s current $12.5 million.
Whatever the number may be, Oilers fans will take it. With the team coming off back-to-back Stanley Cup Final runs, they won’t be playing hardball in keeping McDavid in Edmonton.
It’s impossible to accurately predict what the final number will be on a new contract, but based on everything that is being projected, a four-year extension worth between $17 to $18 million feels like the most likely outcome.
We will have to wait and see if that turns out to be true.