What analytics project McDavid's next Edmonton Oilers contract to look like
The Edmonton Oilers are entering the offseason with one major task at hand: signing Connor McDavid to a long-term contract extension.
After consecutive losses in the Stanley Cup Final, the Oilers captain has one year left remaining on the eight-year deal he signed in Edmonton back in 2017. If left unsigned, McDavid will hit the open market as a free agent on July 1, 2026.
It doesn’t appear that’s the path that we are headed towards. There seems to be optimism that a new deal will get done between McDavid and the Oilers well before that point.
However, it’s unknown exactly what that contract will look like. Leon Draisaitl signed an eight-year deal worth $112 million last summer. Logic would dictate that McDavid would get a similar eight-year deal with a higher number.
Yet, there has been some speculation of late that McDavid may not be inked to a max-term contract after all, with a two-to-five-year deal seemingly a possibility.
The folks over at AFP Analytics specialize in projecting NHL contracts, and their latest projections seem to agree with this speculation. They say that the Oilers captain is projected to sign a four-year deal that carries a record-shattering $16.35 million.
The Edmonton Oilers have ~$12M to work with this offseason. Issue is, they have a handful of bottom of the lineup players to sign, as well as top defenseman Evan Bouchard. How will the Oilers look come the 25-26 season? McDavid extension? #LetsGoOilers #NHL @MaxTermPod @CapWages pic.twitter.com/nBSD9IiFhH
— AFP Analytics (@AFPAnalytics) June 18, 2025
That would be the biggest cap hit for a single player in NHL history, surpassing the previous record of $14 million set by Draisaitl last summer. Of course, this would go into effect starting in the 2026-27 season.
A four-year term would keep McDavid in the Alberta capital through to the 2029-30 NHL season and give him five more shots at finally capturing a Stanley Cup victory with the Oilers.
It would also set him up for another contract extension at the age of 33. Considering McDavid’s skillset and the increasing salary cap, there is a very good chance that he would be able to cash in on another big deal at that point.
Usually, the Oilers would need to be concerned about handing out big contracts like this. While the cap is rising considerably, Edmonton still doesn’t have a ton of space to work with. That philosophy, however, would not apply to McDavid.
He has been the face of the franchise for a decade now and has turned the team into perennial contenders. The Oilers will be giving McDavid everything he wants on his next contract, whether that be short or long term.