Analytics model says Draisaitl is playing elite defence for Oilers this season
An analytics model is saying that Edmonton Oilers superstar Leon Draisaitl is an elite defensive player in the NHL this season.
The model is run by a pair of pro hockey analysts in the Czech Republic known as Andy and Rono. They present their findings in the form of player cards, which make it easy to see how a player is performing based on a variety of different advanced stats.
Numbers presented on player cards represent the percentile a player lands in any given stat, which means that higher numbers are considered to be better with 100 being the max a player can be.
Drasaitl’s player card so far this season is looking very good at both ends of the ice.
The NHL is not ready for this. If Draisaitl will become very good/elite in defense as well, he's gonna be the best player in the league among with McDavid. https://t.co/3qeOvjRfd1 pic.twitter.com/MHExERqx9y
— Andy & Rono (@ARHockeyStats) October 31, 2023
The most surprising thing about that player card is how well it ranks Draisaitl’s defensive play, an area where the German is known to have some struggles.
Taking a look at individual advanced stats on analytics website Natural Stat Trick seems to back up this high rating.
When Draisaitl is on the ice at five-on-five the Oilers have had 40 high-danger chances for while limiting the opposition to just 15 high-danger chances against. This gives him a high-danger chances-for percentage (HDCF%) of 72.73, which is third on the team.
This is also fifth in the league among players with at least 100 minutes of ice time.
To put that number into perspective, Drasaitl had an HDCF% of 51.92% at five-on-five over the course of the last two seasons. The defensive play we are seeing from the German power forward to start this season is a significant improvement.
This kind of improvement would start to chip away at the popular narrative that Draisaitl is a liability on his own end. Through the first eight games of the season, Draisaitl has been on the ice for the most defensive zone faceoffs among forwards on the team with 42. His high HDCF% indicates that the results of these defensive zone faceoffs have been rather successful.
Perhaps the most intriguing thing is that this enhanced defensive play has not taken a toll on Draisaitl’s offensive production. The three-time 50-goal scorer is tied for fifth in the league in points with 13 in eight games.
Of course, an NHL season is a long and winding road that sees its fair share of peaks and valleys. Posting an HDCF% of over 70 with the kind of minutes Draisaitl logs every game would be a remarkable feat and would probably land him serious Selke consideration. It’s unrealistic to think it stays that high.
The fact that it is that high to start the season shows that Draisaitl has committed to working on his defensive game and it has been successful so far. If that play continues to hum along while not interrupting his offence, it could be an absolute game-changer for the Oilers.