What the next three months of fall weather looks like in Alberta
After a summer of extremes for parts of Alberta, many people may be leery to see what the weather is shaping up to look like this fall.
Late last month, Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) released its three-month temperature and precipitation probabilistic forecasts, which cover the period between September and November 2026.
The three-month seasonal outlook is pushed out by ECCC at the end of each month and looks at meteorological trends for the current season.
It’s important to note that while the outlooks do offer what Alberta can expect temperature- and precipitation-wise, they do not identify any significant weather events, such as storms.
According to the forecast models, temperature trends will vary slightly across Canada over the next three months, with most regions, including Alberta, projected to see a decent probability of above-average warmth.
Environment and Climate Change Canada
Based on the ECCC’s first map, northern Alberta and the Rockies currently have the highest probability of seeing above-normal temperatures this fall, in the 60 to 70 per cent range. The Edmonton region is in the 50 to 60 per cent range, while the Calgary region straddles the 40 to 50 per cent and 50 to 60 per cent ranges.
Environment and Climate Change Canada
In the second graph, models predict that much of Alberta, including areas like Edmonton, Jasper, Banff, Grande Prairie, Fort McMurray, High Level, and Peace River, has a 20 to 30 per cent chance of seeing near-normal temperatures during this three-month period.
Sections of southern Alberta, including Lethbridge, Medicine Hat, and potentially the Calgary region, have a forecast probability of temperature near normal at 30 to 40 per cent.
Looking at the precipitation probabilities from September to November, much of Alberta has no clear signals, apart from a section of northeastern Alberta and slivers of extreme northwestern and west-central Alberta, which may have a 40 to 50 per cent chance of being below normal.
Environment and Climate Change Canada
Speaking to Daily Hive late last month for the Alberta September forecast, Brian Proctor, a meteorologist with ECCC, stated that September is typically when Alberta starts making the transition from summer into fall, meaning temperatures will gradually cool as the month goes on.
Proctor also said that September will begin to see the effects of El Niño ramping up, which could contribute to warmer and drier conditions as we move further into the autumn season.
“Typically for us with a fairly significant El Niño, as we move through fall towards winter, it should be getting warmer compared to normal and drier, especially along the mountains for us.”
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You can view all of the forecast maps issued by ECCC online.
Are you looking forward to how the fall forecast for Alberta is shaping up? Let us know in the comments.