Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre pushed out of his seat in Ottawa riding | Daily Hive

Conservative Party of Canada leader Pierre Poilievre. (John Lehmann)

Conservative Party of Canada leader Pierre Poilievre has been pushed out of his Ottawa-area seat in a stunning result from Canada’s 2025 federal election.

It marks a double blow for the Conservatives, who are also projected to lose nationally to the Liberal Party of Canada, which is expected to form government.

Poilievre is the first Conservative leader to lose their MP seat since Kim Campbell in the 1993 federal election.

As of the time of writing, with 264 of 266 polls reporting, Bruce Fanjoy of the Liberal Party of Canada leads in the riding of Carleton with 42,374 votes, while Poilievre trails with 38,581 votes.

But he has no plans to resign. Poilievre delivered his concession speech earlier, vowing to keep the prime minister and the Liberals accountable.

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“Canadians have opted for a razor-thin minority government, a virtual tie in the vote count. So, I would like to congratulate Prime Minister Carney on leading this minority government,” said Poilievre.

“We will have plenty of opportunity to debate and disagree… but tonight we come together as Canadians. We will do our job. Yes, we will do our job to hold the government to account. But first, we congratulate people from all political backgrounds on participating in the democratic process.”

To form a majority government, a party must win at least 172 of the 343 seats, which is five more seats than in the 2021 federal election. The 2023 federal electoral district redistribution added more seats due to population growth.

At the time of writing, preliminary results place the Liberals at 168 seats — eight more than in the previous election — though it remains unclear whether this will result in a majority or minority government. The Conservatives are trailing with 144 seats, which still represents a notable gain of 25 seats compared to their previous standing.

The Bloc Québécois is projected to win 21 seats, marking an 11-seat decline, while the NDP has secured just seven seats — a loss of 17 — falling below the threshold for official party status in the House of Commons.

“Conservatives have achieved major breakthroughs tonight. We brought in record support from blue-collar and unionized workers, youth, new Canadians. We gave voices to countless people across this country who have been left out and left behind for far too long,” said Poilievre.

“We won the big debates of our time on the carbon tax, on inflation, on housing, on the drug crisis, [and] on crime. Conservatives have been leading the debate, and we will continue to put forward the best arguments to improve the lives of our people right across this country. But we will not stop there. Every single day, our Conservative caucus and I will be holding the government to account on behalf of the millions of Canadians who believe in the message of change.”

It is not without precedent for a major party leader to lead from outside of Parliament — NDP leader Jagmeet Singh did so for roughly the first 18 months of his leadership, until he won a vacated safe NDP seat in the Burnaby South riding in a 2019 by-election. However, it is far from ideal, particularly if Poilievre is to serve as an effective Leader of the Opposition.

In Canada’s political system, there is some precedent for party leaders who lose their seat in a general election to have an elected party member in a safe riding step down, allowing the leader to contest a by-election and likely secure a return to office. A notable example occurred in 2013, when B.C. Premier Christy Clark lost her seat in Vancouver–Point Grey during the provincial election. Within months, she subsequently ran in a by-election in the safe BC Liberal stronghold of Westside–Kelowna, after a party member resigned to create the opportunity, and won.

However, for Poilievre, the riding of Carleton, which was previously known as Nepean-Carleton before major redistribution changes, was once considered a safe Conservative seat. Poilievre held this seat for over two decades, winning seven consecutive federal elections at this location, with his first victory being in 2004.

But the winning streak ended on Monday. It should also be noted that there were some irregularities in the number of participants for the Carleton riding contest, as a total of 91 candidates appeared on the ballot — exponentially more than the typical handful of candidates. Of these, 85 independent candidates participated as part of a protest organized by the electoral reform group known as The Longest Ballot Committee, which opposes Canada’s first-past-the-post voting system and other electoral reform issues.

Meanwhile, Carney has secured the seat in the adjacent Ottawa-area riding of Nepean, after initially becoming prime minister last month without being elected by voters.

During his concession speech, Singh announced he would step down from party leadership after the NDP select an interim party leader. This is an apparent response to not only the NDP’s abysmal performance — an all-time historic low for the party — but also his failure to win his Burnaby Central seat, losing to Wade Chang of the Liberals.

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