Canadians are in for some weather "curveballs," according to the latest winter forecast
Canada’s latest forecast is here and the country’s in for some weather “curveballs” this winter.
According to The Weather Network’s new report, El Niño will be a “critical factor” this season.
“El Niño has a reputation for bringing mild winters to much of Canada and it appears that this winter will feature one of the strongest El Niño events on record,” reads the forecast.
“So, can we expect a mild winter across the country this year? The answer is not so simple.”
The wait is over – our 2024 #WinterForecast is live!
Get the full details here: https://t.co/Maq77vKkQC pic.twitter.com/97DrQ36EdF
— The Weather Network (@weathernetwork) November 29, 2023
The network predicts a mild beginning to the core winter months of December, January and February (relative to this time of year), but expects cold temperatures to pick up later in the season.
While parts of Canada have already experienced early winter weather, the report says it has been inconsistent, which is a pattern that’ll continue well into December.
“During the weeks leading up to the holidays, we expect near-normal or above-normal temperatures across most of the country,” reads the forecast.
“However, it’s important to remember that ‘normal’ temperatures are still cold enough for most places to experience messy winter weather even without a ‘consistent’ cold pattern.”
Based on what Canada has seen during previous strong El Niño winters, The Weather Network says it’s possible that a mild weather pattern will dominate.
However, it says there are a variety of reasons this winter could “break tradition,” especially in eastern Canada.
“The current El Niño event, along with water temperatures in the northern Pacific Ocean, is creating a global weather pattern that is unlike anything we’ve seen before,” reads the forecast.
“Therefore, we believe that the upcoming winter season will deliver some curveballs that will set this winter apart from typical strong El Niño winters.”
While mild temperatures should continue across Western Canada, the report says winter will make more of an appearance from the eastern Prairies to Atlantic Canada in January and February.
Canadians in those regions shouldn’t put their snow boots away yet.
An active storm track is expected across the southern and eastern US coast, which is expected to impact Atlantic Canada. This will result in “near-normal to above-normal precipitation totals” for the season.
The forecast expects near-normal or below-normal precipitation and snow totals everywhere else across Canada due to the more southerly storm track.
The report does note that other regions to watch will be southern Ontario and southern Quebec.
“If the storm track ends up being just a little further north than expected at times, then this region would end up seeing a rather active winter pattern,” it reads.
According to The Weather Network, it’s yet to be determined whether the cold weather pattern will “lock in and dominate” during January and February or if it’ll just be limited to a few weeks during the second half of the winter season.
Overall, the global weather pattern isn’t acting as it usually does during a strong El Niño year, says the report. If that persists, then Canada will see a more extended stretch of traditional winter weather.
“Our winter forecast is a compromise between the colder scenario outlined above and the very mild pattern that is typical of a strong El Niño event,” reads the forecast.
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