Flames playoff chances dip drastically after latest loss
The Calgary Flames face long odds to play into late April.
The Flames, on the outside looking in at the Stanley Cup Playoffs, were dealt a near-fatal blow to their postseason aspirations on Thursday, with a 3-2 loss to the visiting Vegas Golden Knights, and a pair of victories for the Winnipeg Jets and Nashville Predators.
“When it’s big games, we need guys to step up and be big players,” forward Milan Lucic said. “We didn’t have that tonight from everyone.”
"It's a tough one."
Milan Lucic talks with the media after the loss to Vegas. pic.twitter.com/tTg0j4l9ue
— Calgary Flames (@NHLFlames) March 24, 2023
Calgary now not only needs to catch Winnipeg for that second wild card into the playoffs from the Western Conference, but suddenly needs to leapfrog Nashville in order to do so. The Flames, by way of a 32-25-15 record for 79 points, sit one back of the Predators, who have three games at hand.
They’re now six back of the Jets with an even 73 games played apiece.
“We got to still make plays and find ways to win,” defenceman Rasmus Andersson said. “Right now it feels like we’re finding ways to lose.”
"It's tough when you have to chase the game."
Rasmus Andersson reflects on the 3-2 setback to the Golden Knights. pic.twitter.com/sg5kC31xH1
— Calgary Flames (@NHLFlames) March 24, 2023
The situation has tumbled Calgary’s playoff odds.
The Flames, the NHL’s unluckiest team, entered action with a 27.4% shot at making the postseason. They exited with just over one-third of that initial chance, plummeting to just 10.3%, according to popular analytics site MoneyPuck.
And that’s being optimistic.
By comparison, The Athletic lists the team’s playoff odds at 6%, and Hockey Reference at just 5.9%.
They exited the NHL Trade Deadline with a 47% shot at playing beyond the regular season.
The belief, from somewhere, is still there, though.
And while Calgary doesn’t necessarily need to run the table over the remaining nine games of the season — which features the easiest strength of schedule of all 32 member clubs — it’s getting close.
Winnipeg is tracking somewhere in the neighbourhood of 95 points over the 82-game schedule, and holds all the key tiebreakers at this stage. Nashville, sellers at the deadline, are charting around 94.
Calgary, which has only had one set of back-to-back wins since January, is falling somewhere around the 88-point mark, and tops out — should they find a nine-game heater (they haven’t had a winning streak longer than three this season) — at 97 points.
Those “must-win” games aren’t cliche anymore.
And the Flames are in a world of trouble when it comes to playoff chances.