There will be some slight upticks in Calgary’s housing market over the next two years, but all things considered the market will be relatively flat.
According to Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation’s (CMHC) latest Housing Market Outlook, the local housing market is still currently facing significant volumes of completed and unabsorbed unit inventory, with nearly 2,100 unsold units as of September 2018.
Most of the unsold units are unsold apartments, accounting for half of all inventory in the city. However, single-detached inventories mainly align with historical levels.
During the same month, there were also over 7,600 apartment units under construction – a year-over-year increase of 32%. Housing starts in 2019 and 2020 are anticipated to be similar to what has been experienced in 2018.
When it comes to the resale market, active listings are expected to increase, with sales rising in 2019 and 2020 due to Calgary’s anticipated stronger population and employment growth. But it will remain a buyers’ market, as “it will take time for the market to transition to conditions that are more balanced.” Compared to the same period in 2017, sales in this portion of the market have fallen by 13.5%.
As for rental housing vacancy, this will fall from employment growth and the continued influx of interprovincial and international residents.
“Migration estimates for Alberta have shown positive interprovincial migration in the first half of 2018 after nearly two years of more people leaving than coming into the province,” reads the report.
“As this trend is expected to continue, population growth in Calgary is projected to increase at a faster rate through 2020. Vacancy rates are expected to trend lower through 2020, however competition from the secondary rental market will keep vacancy rates from declining faster.”
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