Slow start but risky August: BC reveals summer wildfire forecast

A wildfire near Ladysmith, BC seen from Salt Spring Island in August 2021. (Hannah Spray Photography/Shutterstock)

BC has seen a relatively slow start to its fire season this year thanks to a cool and rainy spring, but warm temperatures in late summer could still lead to out-of-control blazes.

Government officials revealed the province’s preliminary wildfire forecast Friday morning, saying they’re thankful this spring has brought mild weather as opposed to last year’s record-setting heat.

Matt MacDonald, lead forecaster for the BC Wildfire Service, said coastal BC and the central interior have seen more rain than normal this year, and temperatures are two to three degrees below seasonal.

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What’s more, the province has seen a weather pattern more typical of fall — with many storms coming from the southwest. That’s created a “rain shadow” effect on the mountains, where the west-facing slopes are packed with snow but the eastern sides are relatively dry.

Some regions of the province are drier due to the rain shadow, and more at risk of a fire from a lightning strike: the Central Plateau, southern Cariboo, Chilcotin, Thompson-Okanagan, and Rocky Mountain Trench.

MacDonald can’t forecast whether lightning strikes this summer will be accompanied by rain — and that will be a key factor in how many fires break out.

So far, BC has seen fewer lightning strikes than normal. There have been about 3,000 recorded this May, whereas last May, there were 16,000.

So far 137 fires have started this year, which is 60% of the five-year average and less than 50% of the 25-year average.

In terms of area burned, this year’s fires have charred just over 600 hectares — which is 5% of BC’s 25-year average.

“It’s been a quiet start to fire season,” MacDonald said. “We’ve been lucky.”

He expects cool and rainy weather to persist through June before temperatures return to seasonal by July. Long-term forecast models for July are unsettled, but by August both Environment Canada and international agencies predict BC will see warm and even hotter-than-seasonal weather.

“July and August are the majority of our fire season. As we trend to warmer than normal temperatures we could see growth in the latter half of summer,” MacDonald said.

Another wildcard this summer could be extreme or abnormal weather events, such as last year’s heat dome. Extreme events can’t be predicted more than two weeks out, and MacDonald assured British Columbians his team would be keeping an eye out.

The BC Wildfire Service is also introducing new measures to cope with wildfires this year. They’re introducing e-transfers as a way evacuees can receive support money, and have a new wildfire reporting app where users can upload images of fires they see.

“The province is ready for wildfire season,” Katrine Conroy, Minister of Forests, said. “We feel pretty happy right now with the report that Matt gave us.”