New Conservative party takes early lead in 2026 Vancouver election race: survey | Daily Hive

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If the civic election were held today, Mayor Ken Sim and his ABC Vancouver party might face an uphill battle for re-election, according to the results of a new survey — the first of many expected in the coming year. This also follows the party’s poor showing in the April 2025 by-election to fill two vacant seats in Vancouver City Council, a stark contrast to their landslide win in the 2022 civic election.

The new survey findings also point to significant shifts in the city’s political landscape, with two newly formed civic parties — neither of which has yet contested an election — emerging as early front-runners.

Notably, both new civic parties in the lead share names resembling major federal or provincial parties, though they are not affiliated with them.

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A new survey by Mainstreet Research, conducted from October 17 to 22, 2025, suggests that the newly formed Vancouver Conservatives currently lead in public support. According to the poll, 32 per cent of respondents said they would vote for the party’s mayoral candidate if an election were held tomorrow — just under a year before the next civic election, scheduled for October 17, 2026.

The Vancouver Conservatives are followed by the Vancouver Liberals at 22 per cent, COPE at 13 per cent, the Green Party of Vancouver at 11 per cent, ABC Vancouver at eight per cent, OneCity Vancouver at five per cent, TEAM for a Livable Vancouver and Vote Vancouver each at four per cent, and the NPA at two per cent. No specific mayoral candidate names were included in this particular question.

The Vancouver Conservatives are part of the broader Conservative Electors Association, a new municipal political organization in British Columbia established in Summer 2025. The party plans to field candidates in more than a dozen municipalities across the province during the 2026 civic elections — not just in Vancouver.

Although the Conservatives have not yet announced a Vancouver mayoral candidate, the survey also tested public opinion using hypothetical candidates in two additional questions.

In the scenario where Kirk Lapointe is the party’s candidate, 26 per cent would vote for the Conservatives, followed by 20 per cent for Pete Fry under the Greens, 17 per cent for Sean Orr under COPE, 16 per cent for Kareem Allam under the Liberals, 11 per cent for Ken Sim under ABC, four per cent for Colleen Hardwick under TEAM, three per cent for Rebecca Bligh under Vote Vancouver, two per cent for Amanda Burrows under OneCity, and one per cent for Fred Harding under the NPA.

Lapointe previously unsuccessfully ran for mayor under the NPA in the 2014 civic election. He is a journalist, the former editor-in-chief of Business in Vancouver, and a former editorial head of Lodestar Media (previously known as Glacier Media). It should be noted that he has not publicly indicated any interest in returning to politics.

Fry is a sitting city councillor who was formally endorsed this week by the Greens to run for City Council or mayor in the upcoming civic election. Orr, an activist and self-described socialist, is also a sitting city councillor after winning the most votes in the April 2025 civic by-election.

Allam is a political strategist, the campaign manager of the ABC party during the 2022 civic election, and was briefly the chief of staff for Mayor Sim’s office. Earlier this year, he founded the Vancouver Liberals party.

Hardwick was previously a city councillor, originally elected under the NPA in the 2018 civic election. She ran as TEAM’s mayoral candidate in the 2022 civic election and for city councillor in the April 2025 by-election.

Bligh was originally elected under ABC in the 2022 civic election, but was expelled from the party in February 2025. She is running for mayor under her new Vote Vancouver party. Burrows is the executive director of First United, while Harding was the NPA’s mayoral candidate in the 2022 civic election.

It should also be noted that the inclusion of Orr, Hardwick, Burrows, and Harding as potential mayoral candidates in the upcoming election is purely hypothetical, as none have indicated their intentions to run for that top seat in office.

Mainstreet’s survey also explored a theoretical scenario in which John Coupar — a former Vancouver Park Board commissioner with the NPA and briefly the party’s mayoral candidate in the 2022 civic election — would run as the Conservative candidate for mayor.

Even with Coupar as their hypothetical candidate, the Conservatives would maintain their lead, with 25 per cent of respondents indicating they would vote for him. He is followed by COPE’s Orr and the Greens’ Fry, each with 20 per cent, the Liberals’ Allam and ABC’s Sim with 13 per cent each, TEAM’s Hardwick with four per cent, OneCity’s Burrows with two per cent, and the NPA’s Harding with one per cent.

For this survey, Mainstreet polled a representative sample of 1,205 adults of voting age, living in Vancouver. The survey had a margin of error of 2.8 per cent, 19 times out of 20.

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