Are the Liberals’ housing targets delulu? Expert says Trudeau’s plan is “impossible"
This is the third article in Daily Hive’s Canada Line series, a multi-platform series uncovering the systematic causes of the social, political, and economic issues impacting Canadians. Filmed on subways and LRTs across the country, the series aims to bring nuance and analysis to the very same platforms where millennials and Gen Z are most active.
Amid declining popularity in voter polls, the Liberal government rolled up their sleeves last spring and tabled Budget 2024, dubbed “Fairness for Every Generation.”
With a name like that, you’d think every Canadian millennial and Gen Z would be receiving a couple of acres of crown land. Maybe not dozens like the British crown loyalists who arrived on the continent in the 18th and 19th centuries, but surely at least one, considering the grandiosity of their goal: restoring generational fairness!
Instead, millennials and Gen Z received yet another pledge from the federal government and Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland — the pledge: “solving Canada’s housing crisis” by “building nearly four million homes by 2031.”
CPAC/YouTube
With an election a year away and housing top of mind for many Canadians, we spoke to Arny Wise, a retired urban planner and developer, to assess the feasibility of the Liberals’ pledge and to determine whether the latest budget was more about gaining voter support than presenting a realistic solution to Canada’s housing crisis.
Arny Wise spokes with Daily Hive in British Columbia. (Arash Randjbar/Daily Hive)
Wise called the targets “impossible” and pointed to historical averages, specifically the average number of new residential building projects per year.
@freshdailyca Are the Liberals’ Housing Targets Delulu? We spoke to urban planner and retired developer Arny Wise to hear his thoughts on the Liberals’ ambitious housing strategy, including their pledge to deliver nearly 4 million homes by 2031. #Canada ♬ original sound – Freshdaily
“The historical average of housing starts in Canada has been in the 250,000 units per year range. That’s been the norm over the last 10 or 15 years,” he said.
To achieve four million homes by 2031, the number of housing starts would need to double to 500,000 units a year, a goal that Wise described as “unrealistic.”
So, what makes this goal so “unrealistic”?
Wise points to various macroeconomic conditions and the lack of appetite in the sector among developers and investors.
“[When you consider] labour shortages, construction costs, and financing costs, it’s impossible.”
Given the “impossibility” of solving the housing crisis in the short to medium term, it looks like Canadian millennials and Gen Z will have to wait a little longer for “generational fairness.”
Step Brothers (Columbia Pictures)
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